July 11, 2025

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WEEKLY TOUCHPOINT

Analyst sentiment is always shifting—but when it moves in sync across the market, it’s worth paying attention. One of the clearest signals comes from forward 12-month earnings revisions, where Wall Street adjusts its expectations for company profitability. Let’s take a closer look at what the latest data is telling us.

• Understanding Forward 12-Month Consensus Earnings Revisions: Forward 12-month earnings revisions reflect analysts’ updated expectations for a company or sector’s earnings over the next year. These revisions, whether upward or downward, offer insights into potential growth opportunities or risks, assisting investors in making more informed decisions. As of the start of the year, the S&P 500 has seen such revisions.
• A Recent Look at the Data: Year-to-date, forward 12-month consensus earnings estimates for the S&P 500 have been revised higher by 3.23%.
• Implications of Earnings Revisions: Earnings revisions provide valuable insights into changes in analysts’ expectations for company profitability. When analysts revise earnings upward, it signals an increased outlook for profitability over the next year. Conversely, when analysts revise earnings downward, it suggests a more cautious outlook for profitability moving forward.

 

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NEWS

• Trump’s megabill squeaks through Senate, but House can still reject final version

• Powell Blames Rate-Cut Delays on Tariffs

• Out-of-favor market leaders are diamonds in the rough

• Trump Accounts are a Big Deal

• House “crypto week” could change how Americans use, save money

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Wealth Mechanics™

 

Planning for Longevity: Spotlight on QLACs

With longevity on the rise, one of the greatest risks in retirement isn’t market volatility—it’s simply running out of money. Qualified Longevity Annuity Contracts (QLACs) are gaining traction as a strategic solution to this risk, especially in today’s higher interest rate environment.

What’s a QLAC?

A QLAC is a type of deferred income annuity purchased within a retirement account (like an IRA or 401(k)). It allows retirees to defer required minimum distributions (RMDs) and secure guaranteed income later in life—no later than age 85. The SECURE 2.0 Act recently increased the contribution cap to $210,000 (as of 2025) and introduced return-of-premium options for beneficiaries.

Who Might Benefit?

QLACs can be an excellent fit for:

• Those concerned about outliving their savings

• Retirees without a pension

• Clients who want to reduce RMDs and taxes

• Couples planning for long lifespans

• Individuals who value financial certainty

Use Case Example

A 65-year-old retires with $1 million in a traditional IRA. Allocating $200,000 to a QLAC with payouts beginning at age 80 could generate ~$44,000 annually for life—providing peace of mind and tax deferral along the way.

Planning Notes

• QLACs can support charitable giving via QCDs

• They can help fund insurance premiums

• Laddering QLAC purchases across years may enhance flexibility and returns

• Current rates have made QLAC payouts more attractive than in prior years

Considerations Before Recommending

• Illiquidity: Funds are locked up

• Inflation: Payments may erode in real terms without an inflation rider

• Complexity: Contracts vary by carrier and require careful review

• Estate impact: Return-of-premium and joint-life options reduce income amounts

Bottom Line

For clients seeking a tax-efficient way to guarantee income in later retirement, QLACs are worth a second look. They’re not for everyone, but when properly used, they can play a meaningful role in a comprehensive retirement income strategy.

DOWNLOAD FULL ARTLCE from the FINANCIAL PLANNING ASSOCIATION

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MARKET COMMENTARY

Equities

• Stocks pulled back from recent highs as trade tensions and economic uncertainty returned to the headlines.

• Market attention is shifting to company fundamentals, with about 10% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings this week.

• Large-cap stocks held up better than small- and mid-caps, while style performance varied across the board.

• Six of eleven sectors declined, with financials, consumer staples, and communication services dragging the most.

• Energy stood out as the week’s winner, boosted by rising oil prices due to fresh tariffs, sanctions, and OPEC maneuvers.

Bonds

• Yields climbed, especially on the long end—two-year at 3.90% and ten-year at 4.43%—widening the yield curve spread to 0.53%.

• Short-duration bonds held up better, while long-duration took a hit from the uptick in yields.

• Government bonds outperformed corporates, as widening credit spreads created a headwind for riskier debt.

• Corporate bond yields rose: 5.14% for investment-grade and 7.39% for high-yield.

Macroeconomic Data

• Fed meeting minutes revealed a divided house: some see rate cuts this summer, others not until 2026.

• Jobless claims sent mixed signals—initial claims dropped again, but continuing claims hit a high not seen since 2021.

• Inflation expectations among consumers declined to 3%, the lowest in five months—a potential sigh of relief.

• Overall, the data kept investors guessing, with no firm footing on where policy or the economy heads next.

 

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INDEX RETURNS

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P​ 500	0.37%	0.78%	0.78%	6.32%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	0.10%	0.80%	0.80%	4.48%
NASDAQ	0.60%	0.81%	0.81%	6.34%
NASDAQ 100	0.29%	0.32%	0.32%	8.28%
Russell 1000	-0.36%	0.89%	0.89%	7.06%
Russell 2000	1.22%	3.05%	3.05%	0.50%
Russell 3000	-0.53%	0.87%	0.87%	6.47%
ACWI	-0.57%	0.35%	0.35%	10.68%

Source: MorningStar

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ANNUITY WATCH

FIXED ACCOUNT		FIXED ACCOUNT
(premium greater $100K)		(premium  less than $100K)
5.5%		4.25%

Source: Jackson Financial

 

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Disclosures

1. Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
2. Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
3. Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
4. Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
5. Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
6. Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
7. Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
8. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.