Week Ending January 9, 2026

WEEKLY TOUCHPOINT

Volatility With a Purpose

Markets have a rhythm, and election cycles are part of that beat. Looking back to 1950, history shows that midterm years tend to feel bumpier than most—often marked by larger intra-year pullbacks. Yet here’s the crafty part: those same years have still delivered positive full-year returns on average.

For long-term investors, that’s an important reminder. Volatility and progress aren’t opposites—they often travel together. If 2026 brings some chop, it wouldn’t be a warning sign so much as a very familiar pattern. Context like this helps us stay anchored to the plan, instead of reacting to the noise along the way.

What Issues Should I Consider At The Start Of The Year?

The start of the year is a great time for a financial check-up. In addition to reflecting back on the prior year, clients may be particularly motivated in January to consider making financial resolutions for the future. You are uniquely positioned to help clients review their circumstances and goals and to guide them toward impactful improvements.

To help frame your conversations with clients who are looking to make a fresh start this year, we have created this checklist. It covers fundamental considerations, including:

• Personal issues
• Cash flow issues
• Asset and debt issues
• Tax issues
• Insurance issues
• Legal issues

Download Our Checklist Guide

SOURCE: fpPathfinder

 

Equities

• U.S. stocks kept climbing, shrugging off geopolitical noise as most major indices notched fresh record highs—momentum remains the market’s quiet companion.
• Earnings continue to do the heavy lifting: the S&P 500 is tracking its 10th straight quarter of earnings growth, with Q4 2025 growth estimated at a healthy 8.3%.
• Looking ahead to 2026, analysts project nearly 15% earnings growth—well above the long-term norm—suggesting corporate profitability still has fuel in the tank.
• Small-caps stole a bit of the spotlight, outperforming large-caps, while leadership rotated modestly across styles.
• Sector breadth was strong, led by consumer discretionary and materials; utilities lagged, while technology quietly stayed positive—if barely.

Bonds

• Fixed income delivered steady footing, with most bond sectors finishing higher despite mixed moves in Treasury yields.
• Short rates inched up, long rates edged down, as the 2-year yield rose to 3.54% while the 10-year slipped to 4.18%, gently flattening the curve.
• Short-term government bonds were the lone laggard, while longer-duration bonds benefited from easing rate risk.
• Credit markets remain calm, with investment-grade and high-yield spreads still historically tight—investors aren’t demanding much fear premium right now.
• Income remains attractive, with corporate bond yields continuing to offer meaningful cash flow for patient capital.

Macroeconomic Data

• The labor market sent mixed signals, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates on hold.
• Job growth cooled sharply, with December payrolls rising just 50,000 and 2025 averaging a subdued 49,000 per month.
• Wages picked back up, climbing 3.8% year over year—even as job openings fell to their lowest level since late 2024.
• Economic activity remains split, as services expanded solidly while manufacturing stayed in contraction for the tenth straight month.
• Consumers showed a bit more optimism, with sentiment ticking higher again in January—especially among lower-income households.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	0.09%	1.03%	1.86%	1.86%	1.86%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-0.12%	0.96%	2.88%	2.88%	2.88%
NASDAQ	0.11%	1.29%	1.96%	1.96%	1.96%
NASDAQ 100	0.00%	1.51%	2.11%	2.11%	2.11%
Russell 1000	-0.02%	0.92%	1.90%	1.90%	1.90%
Russell 2000	0.01%	2.97%	5.72%	5.72%	5.72%
Russell 3000	0.01%	1.01%	2.05%	2.05%	2.05%
ACWI	0.22%	0.97%	2.53%	2.53%	2.53%

Choosing the Right Pension Plan

For business owners, retirement planning isn’t one-size-fits-all—it’s more like choosing the right tool for the job. There are several proven pension plan options, and the best choice often depends on how a business owner balances personal goals with business realities.

For many successful business owners, the appeal of a pension plan comes down to control, scale, and tax efficiency. Unlike a 401(k) or IRA—both of which cap annual contributions—a pension allows owners to make significantly larger, tax-deductible contributions, especially in high-income or late-career years. Pensions also reward consistency and longevity, making them ideal for owners with stable cash flow who want to accelerate retirement savings while smoothing taxable income. In the right structure, a pension can be paired with a 401(k), turning the business into a powerful wealth-building engine rather than just a paycheck generator.

Here’s the lens we use when guiding that decision:

• Maximizing retirement savings – Some plans are built to supercharge owner contributions, especially in peak earning years.
• Incentivizing and retaining employees – The right plan can double as a powerful recruiting and retention tool.
• Managing costs and complexity – Administrative burden matters; simplicity has real economic value.
• Optimizing income tax planning – Strategic plan design can meaningfully reduce current tax exposure.

Bottom line: the right pension plan isn’t just about retirement—it’s about aligning cash flow, taxes, people, and long-term vision into one intentional strategy.

 

Download Our Guide

 

SOURCE: fpPathfinder

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Disclosures

1. Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
2. Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
3. Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
4. Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
5. Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
6. Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
7. Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
8. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.