Week Ending January 16, 2026

WEEKLY TOUCHPOINT

Earnings: A Tale of Two Markets

As we kick off this week’s note, it’s worth pausing on what corporate earnings are quietly telling us beneath the market’s surface:

• Over the past two decades, small-company earnings have typically been more volatile, experiencing deeper drawdowns during economic slowdowns than their large-company counterparts. That volatility is the “price of admission” for higher long-term growth potential—but it can feel uncomfortable in real time.
• Today’s snapshot is telling: large-company earnings are sitting at all-time highs, while small-company earnings remain modestly below prior peaks. In plain English, big businesses are still humming, while smaller ones are working through a mild earnings dip.
• The encouraging twist is that small-cap earnings appear to be stabilizing and improving, suggesting the gap may be narrowing rather than widening from here.
• For long-term investors, this kind of divergence is often where opportunity quietly forms—not by predicting outcomes, but by staying diversified while markets sort out leadership.

This is a good reminder of why we focus less on headlines and more on fundamentals: earnings growth is the engine that ultimately drives long-term returns, even when the ride gets a little bumpy.

 

What Issues Should I Consider When Reviewing Cash Flow?

The health of every financial plan depends heavily on sound cash flow planning. Creating a cash flow plan is likely a preliminary exercise conducted at the outset of each of your client relationships. While clients tend to know what they should do, in reality they often fall short of taking even the most basic steps toward tracking and managing their cash flow. You can have a dramatic long-term impact on your clients’ financial well-being by simply increasing their awareness of their spending and promoting discipline and accountability.

To help you guide your clients toward creating and managing a cash flow plan that supports their lifestyle and goals, we have created this checklist. It covers cash flow planning basics, including:

• Income sources
• Essential and discretionary spending
• Debt and taxes
• Goal funding
• Monitoring strategies

Download OUr Cash Flow Guide

SOURCE: fpPathfinder

 

Equities

• Earnings season opened with mixed signals, but the bigger story is durability: if Q4 comes in as expected, the S&P 500 will notch its 10th straight quarter of earnings growth—no small feat.
• Looking ahead to 2026, analysts still expect nearly 15% earnings growth—well above the long-term average and a reminder that fundamentals, not headlines, tend to drive markets over time.
• Leadership rotated last week as small-caps and value stocks took the baton from mega-cap growth, even while semiconductors continued to show strength under the hood.
• Sector performance was a patchwork quilt: real estate, consumer staples, and industrials stitched together gains, while financials lagged after weaker bank earnings and new regulatory chatter.
• Overseas markets quietly stole the show, with both developed and emerging stocks outperforming U.S. peers—another reminder that diversification still earns its keep.

Bonds

• Treasury yields drifted higher across the curve, with the 2-year and 10-year both moving up—keeping the yield curve modestly upward sloping.
• Longer-duration credit bonds held up better, suggesting investors remain comfortable taking measured risk as economic fears cool.
• Mortgage markets caught a tailwind after policy announcements aimed at supporting housing finance, helping push 30-year mortgage rates to a multi-year low.
• Credit spreads remain historically tight, signaling continued confidence in corporate balance sheets and limited stress beneath the surface.
• Income remains attractive, especially for investors willing to be selective and patient in fixed income.

Macroeconomic Data

• Inflation continued to ease, with core CPI posting its lowest reading since 2021—supporting the narrative that price pressures are gradually normalizing.
• Consumers are still showing resilience, as retail sales grew solidly year over year, reinforcing the “slowdown, not stop” economic storyline.
• Housing surprised to the upside, with existing home sales rebounding late in the year—likely helped by easing mortgage rates.
• Producers still face pockets of pressure, as wholesale prices remain elevated in certain categories, especially final demand goods.
• Industrial production moved higher, signaling steady—if slower—momentum across manufacturing, utilities, and mining.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	-0.89%	-1.22%	0.48%	0.48%	0.48%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-0.78%	-0.44%	1.90%	1.90%	1.90%
NASDAQ	-0.06%	-0.82%	1.18%	1.18%	1.18%
NASDAQ 100	-1.14%	-1.95%	-0.04%	-0.04%	-0.04%
Russell 1000	-0.07%	-0.30%	1.61%	1.61%	1.61%
Russell 2000	0.09%	2.13%	7.96%	7.96%	7.96%
Russell 3000	-0.08%	-0.19%	1.85%	1.85%	1.85%
ACWI	0.00%	0.17%	2.48%	2.48%	2.48%

What Issues Should I Consider When Starting A Business?

When a client is starting a business, it is important to ask the right questions up front and to identify issues that are likely to arise. First-time entrepreneurs and seasoned business owners alike can benefit from preliminary discussions to spot planning opportunities, minimize complications, and get started down the right path. This checklist helps guide the conversation regarding common factors relevant to prospective business owners.

This checklist covers:

• Personal and business cash flow issues
• Legal and business formation issues
• Tax issues
• Other planning considerations

Download Our Guide

 

SOURCE: fpPathfinder

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Disclosures

1. Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
2. Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
3. Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
4. Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
5. Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
6. Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
7. Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
8. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.