Week Ending July 17, 2026
Tracking Earnings Revisions
This chart illustrates how Wall Street’s bottom-up consensus estimate for S&P 500 earnings per share has evolved across three upcoming quarters. Each line traces the path of analyst expectations for a given quarter as new information comes to light. Consensus EPS estimates currently stand at $82.62 for Q2 2026, $88.68 for Q3 2026, and $91.81 for Q4 2026. Each line reflects how expectations for that quarter have shifted since the start of the year.
The direction of earnings revisions has long served as a useful gauge of corporate fundamentals — rising estimates typically reflect improving profit expectations, while declining estimates often signal growing caution among analysts. As always, estimates are subject to change and are not a guarantee of future earnings.
Fed’s Warsh Promises Congress a Hard Line on Inflation Amid Looming Risks
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The House passed a bill to make daylight saving time permanent
Understanding Trump Accounts
Established under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and officially launched on July 4, 2026, Trump Accounts represent a new category of tax-advantaged savings vehicle for American children. Structured as a form of traditional IRA under IRC §530A, these accounts are designed to give the next generation an early foothold in long-term investing.
Key features clients should know:
- Eligibility: Any U.S. child under age 18 with a Social Security number qualifies. The account is held in the child’s name, with a parent or guardian serving as custodian until age 18.
- Seed funding: Children born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028, may qualify for a one-time $1,000 federal contribution under a pilot program.
- Contribution limits: Up to $5,000 per year may be contributed with after-tax dollars, growing tax-deferred. Employers, charitable organizations, and government entities may also contribute on a child’s behalf.
- Investment structure: During childhood, holdings are restricted to low-cost U.S. equity index funds or ETFs, with fees capped by law.
- At age 18: The account converts automatically into a traditional IRA, allowing the funds to continue growing for retirement, education, entrepreneurship, or a first home purchase.
- Administration: Accounts are initially managed by BNY, in partnership with Robinhood, though they can be rolled over to another financial institution.
A note on planning implications: For families already funding 529 plans or custodial accounts, a Trump Account adds another tool to the estate and education-planning toolkit. Because contribution limits, investment restrictions, and beneficiary rules differ from other vehicles, we recommend clients speak with their advisor before deciding how a Trump Account fits alongside existing savings strategies.
For clients who want to learn more or begin the enrollment process, the official source for eligibility, enrollment, and account details is TrumpAccounts.gov.
Equities
- U.S. equity markets declined for the week as a selloff in semiconductor and AI-related names outweighed encouraging inflation data, firm energy prices, and a strong start to Q2 earnings season.
- Early earnings results have been favorable: 88% of reporting S&P 500 companies have beaten EPS estimates, with blended earnings growth of 24.7%, reflecting profit strength beyond the “Magnificent Seven.”
- The S&P 500 fell 1.55%, while the Nasdaq declined more sharply as growth stocks underperformed value; the Russell 2000 held up relatively well, losing just 0.51%.
- Energy led sector performance (+4.99%) as oil climbed to $82.49 per barrel amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, while information technology (-3.78%) and communication services (-2.38%) lagged.
- Developed international markets fell 0.81%, outperforming U.S. large caps, while emerging markets declined 4.10%.
Bonds
- Fixed income markets posted modest gains as cooler-than-expected inflation data supported Treasuries, even against a backdrop of renewed geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices.
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.55% and the 2-year yield rose to 4.18%, widening the 2-10 year spread to 0.37%.
- Short- and intermediate-duration government and investment-grade bonds posted small gains, while longer-duration issues remained pressured by higher yields.
- High-yield bonds were little changed, reflecting resilient credit fundamentals despite broader market volatility.
Macroeconomic Data
- June CPI came in below expectations, with headline inflation falling 0.4% month-over-month — the largest monthly decline since 2020 — bringing the year-over-year rate down to 3.5% as lower energy prices offset continued strength in shelter and services.
- Producer prices also eased, reinforcing signs that inflation pressure is moderating.
- Consumer spending remained resilient: June retail sales rose 0.2%, with core retail sales up a stronger 0.5%, supported by solid auto and online purchases.
- The labor market showed little sign of deterioration, with initial jobless claims falling to 208,000.
- Industrial production increased modestly, and consumer sentiment improved, suggesting household confidence remains steady despite geopolitical uncertainty and elevated oil prices.
(as of Monday’s Market Opening)
| Total Return
(1D) |
Total Return (1W) | Total Return (MTD) | Total Return (QTD) | Total Return (YTD) | Total Return (2025) | |
| S&P 500 | -1.01% | -0.77% | -0.56% | -0.56% | 8.94% | 16.39% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -0.77% | -0.67% | -0.33% | -0.33% | 8.50% | 12.97% |
| NASDAQ | -1.40% | -1.36% | -2.65% | -2.65% | 9.80% | 20.36% |
| NASDAQ 100 | -1.49% | -2.29% | -5.56% | -5.56% | 13.24% | 20.17% |
| Russell 1000 | -1.02% | -1.55% | -0.68% | -0.68% | 9.39% | 17.18% |
| Russell 2000 | -0.52% | -0.66% | -2.13% | -2.13% | 19.95% | 12.66% |
| Russell 3000 ETF | -0.97% | -1.43% | -0.70% | -0.70% | 9.92% | 16.96% |
| ACWI (International All Country World Index) | -0.87% | -1.70% | -1.26% | -1.26% | 10.26% | 22.41% |
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- Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
- Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
- Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
- Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
- Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
- Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
- Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.
