August 29, 2025
WEEKLY TOUCHPOINT
In May of 1968, a Navy submarine called Scorpion went missing.
The only information the Navy had on its whereabouts came from the final radio signal transmitted from the sub.
A 20-mile circle was then mapped out in the middle of the North Atlantic as a starting point for the search.
In thousands of feet of water, finding the sub seemed like an impossible task.
Instead of consulting “search and rescue experts” to find Scorpion, the Navy assembled a team with a wide range of knowledge and expertise and asked them to guess where the submarine could be.
Yes, that’s right – literally just “guess.”
Not one person independently guessed the actual location of the Scorpion.
But the average of the group’s guesses? Just 220 yards away from the wreckage.
In 1906, at a country fair in England, 800 people entered a contest to guess the weight of an Ox.
Out of those 800 people, not one person guessed the weight correctly.
But the average of all 800 guesses? 1,197 pounds. Just one pound off from the Ox’s actual weight (1,198).
The stories of the submarine and the ox show that when you take the average of a diverse group, the collective answer tends to be closer to the truth than any single expert within that group.
That’s the Wisdom of Crowds.
The stock market works the same way:
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Every trade reflects an opinion.
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Every sale reflects a risk tolerance.
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Every allocation reflects a time horizon.
Aggregate millions of these diverse, independent opinions and voila: a price is set.
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You don’t have to like the price.
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You don’t have to agree with the price.
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But, in my opinion, you’d be foolish not to respect the price.
Hand up, I used to be a default contrarian and take the “other side” of most hot trades.
The concept of The Wisdom of Crowds is what changed my mind.
Now, when the price of an asset doesn’t make sense to me, I concede that the market knows something I don’t.
And I’m completely fine with that.
SOURCE: Chart Kid Matt
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US Slaps Crushing 50% Tariffs on India in Proxy Strike at Russia
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U.S. GDP Growth Revised to 3.3% in Q2, Withstanding Tariff and Interest Rate Challenges
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U.S. Government Starts Pushing Economic Data Onto Blockchains as ‘Proof of Concept’
- Job churn: Seth Godin’s Thoughts on AI and Job Replacements
- A Mid-Summer Market Check
Life Insurance Awareness Month: Week 1
September is Life Insurance Awareness Month and offers us a great reminder that life insurance isn’t just a financial product – life insurance is key to comprehensive financial planning, whether it serves a traditional risk management function or is put to another use. In the course of our relationship, we will likely analyze the need to purchase a new life insurance policy at several points. This can be of particular importance with new clients who may be uninsured or underinsured and need to protect their loved ones, or this can be vital for individuals whose circumstances change, for many reasons.
To help guide you through an introductory life insurance conversation, we have created this checklist. It covers key considerations, including:
- Purpose of coverage
- Appropriate amount of coverage
- Types of policies
- Rider options
DOWNLOAD OUR INTRODUCTORY GUIDES NOW
What Issues Should I Consider When Purchasing A Life Insurance Policy
What Issues Should I Consider When Reviewing My Existing Life Insurance Policy
Source: fp Pathfinder
Equities
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U.S. stocks eased lower on light holiday trading, with Nvidia’s upbeat earnings helping soothe concerns around AI demand and China exposure.
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Small-caps held their own, outperforming mid- and large-cap peers and narrowing their lag for the year.
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Style leadership was split: growth bested value in larger companies, while value took the edge in small-caps.
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Cyclical areas outpaced defensives; Utilities and Consumer Staples were the laggards.
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Overseas, European equities slipped and weighed on benchmarks, while emerging markets struggled despite a lift from China.
Bonds
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Yields moved lower at the front end, lifting fixed income markets overall.
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The 2-Year Treasury settled at 3.59%, while the 10-Year drifted down to 4.23%.
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Short-duration bonds benefited from the curve steepening, while long Treasuries and corporates faced light pressure.
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High-yield continued its strong run, with spreads tightening further.
Macroeconomic Data
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Inflation stayed steady: Core PCE rose 0.3% in July, up 2.9% year-over-year.
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Consumers remain resilient: incomes climbed 0.4% and spending 0.5%, with gains across goods and services.
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Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.3%, supported by strong consumer and investment activity.
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Durable goods orders fell 2.8% in July—better than June’s steep drop—with core orders showing healthy growth.
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The labor market stayed tight, with jobless claims easing slightly, though continuing claims stayed elevated.
(as of Monday’s Market Opening)
| Total Return (1D) | Total Return (1W) | Total Return (MTD) | Total Return (QTD) | Total Return (YTD) | |
| S&P 500 | -0.89% | -0.98% | -0.89% | 3.19% | 8.86% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -0.65% | -0.38% | -0.65% | 2.61% | 6.35% |
| NASDAQ | -1.03% | -1.44% | -1.03% | 4.24% | 9.96% |
| NASDAQ 100 | -1.02% | -1.49% | -1.02% | 2.19% | 10.30% |
| Russell 1000 | -0.93% | -0.88% | 1.16% | 3.48% | 9.65% |
| Russell 2000 | -0.71% | -0.56% | 6.43% | 8.21% | 6.21% |
| Russell 3000 | -0.85% | -0.85% | 1.44% | 3.74% | 9.51% |
| ACWI | -0.87% | -1.44% | 1.79% | 2.86% | 13.45% |
Source: MorningStar
Global Client Survey
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Take Our Survey Now (click here)
Disclosures
- Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
- Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
- Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
- Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
- Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
- Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
- Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
- Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.
