September 26, 2025

WEEKLY TOUCHPOINT

Why Talk About Government Shutdowns?

Every so often, Washington finds itself at a budget standstill, and the headlines shift to the possibility of a government shutdown. Clients often ask, “Should I be worried about my portfolio?” The truth is, while shutdowns grab attention, their long-term impact on markets is usually far less dramatic than the news cycle suggests. Still, they can shake confidence, rattle markets in the short term, and add another layer of uncertainty to an already complex economic picture. That’s why it’s worth taking a closer look at what history—and today’s conditions—tell us.

A Recurring Event: Since 1981, there have been 10 shutdowns, averaging about nine days. They disrupt some services and delay government data, but they don’t grind the entire economy to a halt.
Confidence Gets Shaken: Shutdowns often dent consumer and business confidence, which can temporarily slow spending and activity.
Markets Stay Resilient: Historically, shutdowns haven’t triggered recessions or lasting market downturns. Volatility is common, but markets tend to rebound once the government reopens.
Why Now Feels Different: With the economy slowing and markets priced for optimism, investors may be more sensitive to shocks this time. Bonds, which usually act as a buffer, aren’t offering the same protection.
The Smart Investor Approach: Rather than reacting to short-term noise, disciplined investors keep their eyes on the horizon. Long-term goals—not political standoffs—are what should guide portfolio decisions.

The Bottom Line: Government shutdowns may cause short-term ripples, but they rarely change the tide of long-term investing. Staying steady and disciplined is often the best response to the noise in Washington. I like how the author closes her thought-piece.

“Shutdowns alone aren’t a reason to sell all your stocks and run for the hills. Frankly, I can’t think of many (any?) events that should make you feel that way. Except for a zombie invasion, and you know what, you have bigger problems on your hands there. If you’re investing for years and decades, you have time on your side to take some risks. I just wouldn’t be cavalier about buying that hot stock that could get hit harder in a selloff and may not have the fundamental underpinning to survive.”

READ the Author’s Original Blog

Year-End Planning: Key Issues to Consider

It’s hard to believe, but we are almost in the final quarter of 2025. As the calendar winds down, it’s a good time to step back and review your financial picture. The final months of the year often bring opportunities to make smart moves that can set you up for success in the new year. Here are a few areas worth considering:

Investments & Retirement Accounts: Review gains and losses in taxable accounts to see if tax-loss harvesting makes sense, and confirm that all required minimum distributions (RMDs) have been taken.
Tax Planning: Evaluate your income level and tax bracket. Year-end can be an opportune time to “fill out” a tax bracket or plan for changes in future income.
Charitable Giving: If giving back is part of your plan, charitable strategies may also help reduce your tax bill. Options like donor-advised funds or qualified charitable distributions can be especially effective.
Business Owners: Consider timing of business expenses or pass-through income strategies that could make a difference on your personal return.
Cash Flow & Savings: Year-end is a great moment to assess your savings progress—whether that’s maximizing 401(k) contributions, funding a 529 college plan, or boosting other long-term goals.

Bottom Line: A thoughtful year-end review helps ensure you’re not leaving opportunities on the table. Taking action now can mean smoother sailing in the year ahead.

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Source: fp Pathfinder

Equities

Most major indexes slipped as investors weighed the Fed’s next move on rates.
Small-caps lagged large-caps, showing their sensitivity to higher borrowing costs.
Value stocks held up better than growth for the week, though they still trail year-to-date.
Energy topped the leaderboard on the heels of higher oil prices and political support for fossil fuels.
Communication Services dragged lower, with Alphabet and Meta both under pressure; foreign equities also posted modest declines.

Bonds

Treasury yields rose across the curve after hawkish Fed commentary cooled hopes for rate cuts.
The 2-year finished at 3.63% and the 10-year at 4.20%, leaving the yield curve slope steady.
Investment-grade and high-yield bonds both sold off, with yields climbing to 4.85% and 7.07%.
Credit spreads widened slightly, pointing to a more cautious tone in fixed income markets.

Macroeconomic Data

Inflation (Core PCE) rose 0.2% in August and 2.9% year-over-year—still above the Fed’s 2% goal.
Personal income (+0.4%) and spending (+0.6%) both beat expectations, while GDP was revised up to 3.8%.
Housing data was mixed: existing-home sales slipped, but new-home sales jumped over 20%.
Consumer sentiment continued to cool, with the University of Michigan index falling to 55.1, signaling unease about the future

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	0.59%	-0.75%	2.84%	7.07%	12.96%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	0.65%	-0.29%	1.54%	4.88%	8.70%
NASDAQ	0.44%	-1.34%	4.79%	10.38%	16.43%
NASDAQ 100	0.44%	-1.04%	4.65%	8.05%	16.62%
Russell 1000	0.61%	-0.34%	2.78%	7.36%	13.75%
Russell 2000	0.86%	-0.67%	2.91%	12.16%	10.08%
Russell 3000	0.66%	-0.31%	2.85%	7.62%	13.60%
ACWI	0.53%	-0.30%	2.92%	6.80%	17.79%

Scorecard #3: Business Attractiveness

When we talk about building value in your business, it’s not just about profitability. Buyers and investors look at a wide range of factors that make your company either more—or less—attractive in the marketplace. That’s where the Business Attractiveness Scorecard comes in.

The scorecard evaluates critical categories such as:

Business Fundamentals: Stability of operations, strength of management, customer diversification, brand recognition, and whether your systems and processes are documented and transferable.
Financial Performance: Past and forecasted profitability, consistency of revenue growth, and the presence of recurring revenue streams.
Market Position: Industry growth trends, barriers to entry, competitive landscape, and your dominance in the market.
Buyer Considerations: Why you’re selling, how much risk is tied to your business, and the overall demand in the private capital market.

Each category is rated on a scale of 1 to 6, from “nonexistent” to “in a class of one.” When totaled and divided against a maximum score of 150, you receive an Attractiveness Score—a percentage that reflects how buyers will perceive your company’s value.

Why does this matter? According to the Exit Planning Institute, more than 70% of businesses put on the market never sell—often because they fail these attractiveness tests. Even among those that do sell, too many receive steep discounts because their operations aren’t transferable or their financial performance lacks predictability.

The good news is that attractiveness can be improved. Through deliberate value enhancement strategies—like strengthening management teams, diversifying revenue, and formalizing processes—owners can increase both their Attractiveness and Readiness scores. This not only boosts the potential sale price but also creates a stronger, more resilient company, even if you never plan to sell.

Key Takeaway:

Think of the Attractiveness Score as your business’s curb appeal. Just like in real estate, buyers are drawn to companies that are well-structured, predictable, and not overly dependent on the owner. The earlier you assess and work on your score, the more options you’ll have when it comes time to transition.

Business Attractiveness Scorecard

SOURCE: The Exit Planning Institute

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

By Jason Foster

September 29, 2025

Cestia Wealth Management