Week Ending May 15, 2026
Fidelity’s 2026 midyear outlook: Preparing for what’s to come in the economy
Key takeaways
- Despite geopolitical conflict, higher oil prices, and persistent inflation, the US economy has continued to show underlying strength.
- Strong corporate earnings, rising manufacturing activity, and relatively stable labor markets suggest companies remain confident about future demand, even as policy uncertainty and uneven pressures persist across sectors.
- Inflation is a key risk that could change the outlook: If it remains stubbornly above target, the risk of market stress increases.
Navigating the shock: the Fed, energy markets, and the path back to easing
Will I Avoid IRMAA Surcharges On Medicare Part B & Part D?
Planning around Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (“IRMAA”) surcharges has become more important as the Medicare premium increase amount has grown in recent years. While on the surface the concept is pretty straightforward, there are a few issues that can cause an unexpected wrinkle for your clients. It can be difficult to avoid pitfalls, and to recognize when a client may be able to request an exception from the IRMAA surcharge.
To help make this easier, we have created the “Will I Avoid IRMAA Surcharges On Medicare Part B & Part D” flowchart. It addresses some of the most common issues that arise for a client on Medicare, including:
- IRMAA surcharges for Part B and Part D based on MAGI ranges
- Situations to request an exception and the form to complete
- Relevant tax year for the surcharge calculation
Equities
- The S&P 500 added 0.17% and the Dow slipped 0.11%, as earnings strength and AI enthusiasm partly offset rising Treasury yields and renewed inflation concerns.
- Corporate fundamentals remain robust: Q1 S&P 500 revenue growth is tracking at 11.4%, the strongest pace since mid-2022, with earnings growth on pace for a post-2021 peak of 27.7%.
- The technology sector continues to anchor results, posting 29.2% year-over-year revenue growth and helping large-cap growth outperform large-cap value for the sixth time in the past seven weeks.
- Four of eleven S&P 500 sectors finished higher. Energy led with a gain of more than 7% on Middle East tensions.
- Rate-sensitive and economically sensitive groups lagged: consumer discretionary fell 3.0%, real estate declined 2.6%, materials lost 2.2%, and utilities dropped 2.0%.
- International equities traded lower as semiconductor and AI-related names saw profit-taking.
Bonds
- Treasury yields climbed to near one-year highs on concerns that Middle East tensions could fuel further inflation.
- The 10-year yield rose 21 basis points to 4.59%; the 2-year rose 19 basis points to 4.09%, leaving the 2s-10s spread at 50 basis points.
- The Bloomberg US Aggregate Index returned -1.14%, with weakness across the quality and duration spectrum and the longest maturities hardest hit.
- Long-term government bonds returned -2.60%, the worst-performing segment, as the Treasury cleared a 30-year auction at 5% for the first time since 2007.
- Investment-grade and high-yield corporate yields finished the week higher at 5.28% and 7.42%, respectively.
Macroeconomic Data
- The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 95.9 in April but remained below its 52-year average of 98.0 for the second consecutive month, with inflation cited as a growing concern.
- April CPI accelerated from 3.3% to 3.8% year-over-year — close to a three-year high — driven primarily by gasoline and grocery prices.
- April PPI rose 1.4% for the month and 6.0% year-over-year, the highest reading since late 2022.
- Retail sales increased 0.5% in April, the third consecutive monthly gain, led by gas stations, sporting goods, and electronics.
- Initial jobless claims came in at 211,000, slightly above estimates of 207,000 and the prior week’s revised 199,000. Continuing claims rose 24,000 to 1.782 million.
(as of Monday’s Market Opening)
| Total Return (1D) | Total Return (1W) | Total Return (MTD) | Total Return (QTD) | Total Return (YTD) | |
| S&P 500 | -0.69% | -0.74% | 2.06% | 12.70% | 7.48% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -0.30% | -0.65% | -0.55% | 6.56% | 2.74% |
| NASDAQ | -1.27% | -1.45% | 4.02% | 19.93% | 11.41% |
| NASDAQ 100 | -1.52% | -2.18% | 4.48% | 20.82% | 13.59% |
| Russell 1000 | -0.63% | -0.60% | 1.81% | 12.17% | 7.35% |
| Russell 2000 | -1.30% | -3.58% | -1.43% | 10.48% | 11.50% |
| Russell 3000 | -0.70% | -0.77% | 1.70% | 11.99% | 7.52% |
| ACWI | -0.51% | -1.34% | 1.16% | 10.79% | 8.35% |
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Disclosures
- Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
- Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
- Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
- Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
- Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
- Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
- Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
- Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.
