Cestia Wealth Management

Week Ending August 21, 2026

Jason Foster — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 13:11:15 +0000

The Interest Burden in Context

This week’s chart looks at the federal debt from a different angle than the headline dollar figure. Rather than tracking the total amount owed, it measures federal interest payments as a share of everything the federal government spends — the portion of each budget dollar consumed by servicing past borrowing rather than funding current programs.

By that measure, interest payments currently absorb 16.1% of federal spending, compared with a long-term average of 15.0% dating back to 1947. The debt itself has continued to set records. The interest burden, framed as a share of total spending, has not.

Investment implications: The distinction matters for how investors interpret fiscal headlines. A record debt balance and a record interest burden are not the same claim, and conflating them can lead to portfolio decisions built on the wrong premise. The interest burden reflects both how much is owed and the rate at which it is financed — which is why the level of interest rates, and not the debt balance alone, drives the cost. For long-term investors, the practical takeaway is to keep fiscal developments in proportion: they are a legitimate input to duration and diversification decisions, but a poor basis for wholesale changes to a plan.

Bond Market Drives Long-Term Treasury Yields to 19-Year High

Warsh Goes to Wyoming. Will He Bring an Inflation Plan?

Putting a Number on the Cost of Waiting: Capital Gains Tax Deferral Calculator

Few decisions in financial planning generate more hesitation than selling an appreciated holding. A position purchased years ago at a fraction of its current price carries an embedded tax bill, and the instinct to avoid that bill often quietly overrides the question of whether the position still belongs in the portfolio at its current size. Fidelity’s Capital Gains Tax Deferral Calculator is designed to replace that instinct with arithmetic. The tool compares the potential benefits of diversifying a concentrated position on a tax-deferred basis against simply selling the position and reinvesting the after-tax proceeds — which is to say, it puts a number on both sides of a tradeoff that most investors evaluate on feel alone. Fidelity Institutional

Running the calculation matters because the answer is not intuitive, and it changes with the inputs. A large embedded gain, a long remaining time horizon, and a high marginal rate all argue for patience. A holding that has grown to dominate a portfolio, a near-term liquidity need, a coming change in tax bracket, or a heightened concentration risk all argue for acting sooner. Because those factors push in opposite directions, the same holding can warrant opposite conclusions in two different households — and the only way to know which applies is to model it.

The calculator is most useful when it is pointed at a specific question rather than run in the abstract. It can help frame decisions such as: How much of this position can I diversify this year without moving into a higher bracket? If I hold rather than sell, how large does the expected return advantage need to be to justify the concentration risk I am carrying? Does spreading the sale across several tax years produce a materially better result than a single transaction? And how does the calculus shift if the position is intended for heirs or for charitable giving, where the tax treatment may differ entirely?

If you hold a concentrated or highly appreciated position, we would encourage you to raise it at your next review. We can run this analysis alongside your broader plan, so the tax consequence is weighed against your allocation targets, income needs, and estate objectives rather than considered in isolation. Deferral is a legitimate strategy. It is simply not a free one, and the purpose of the calculation is to know what it costs.

Check Out the Fidelity Calculator

Markets head into the final week of August with a full macro and earnings docket. Investors will parse July Personal Consumption Expenditures data — covering inflation, spending, and income — for further signals on the disinflation path, while also digesting fiscal second-quarter earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), the S&P 500’s largest constituent, in a report that could meaningfully shape sentiment around the AI trade. Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to deliver his first keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, a speech markets will be parsing closely for policy signals; notably, there is no summer Friday this week, so investors will be positioned for his remarks in real time.

These catalysts converge with seasonal headwinds that have historically weighed on risk assets and with typically lighter late-August trading volumes, a combination that has the potential to amplify volatility across equity, bond, currency, and commodity markets. This week’s research also revisits last week’s Treasury buyback announcement and the resulting volatility in long-dated bonds, alongside what historically strong economic data — such as last week’s Philly Fed manufacturing report — has tended to signal for equity markets going forward.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	0.43%	-0.91%	2.47%	2.33%	12.11%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	0.98%	-0.34%	1.51%	1.83%	10.85%
NASDAQ	0.43%	-1.74%	3.18%	-0.13%	12.64%
NASDAQ 100	0.33%	-2.29%	3.66%	-3.20%	16.08%
Russell 1000	0.43%	-1.35%	2.77%	2.49%	12.89%
Russell 2000	0.77%	-1.68%	3.01%	-0.16%	22.36%
Russell 3000	0.43%	-1.36%	2.73%	2.36%	13.31%
ACWI	0.53%	-0.91%	2.80%	2.45%	14.39%

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending August 21, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending August 14, 2026

Jason Foster — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 18:34:29 +0000

The Scale of AI Infrastructure

The scale of the AI infrastructure buildout becomes easier to appreciate when measured in cash. Rolling consensus estimates for the next twelve months point to approximately $977 billion in capital expenditures across the five largest hyperscalers, set against roughly negative $92 billion in free cash flow — a reminder that capital committed to infrastructure is capital unavailable for dividends, buybacks, debt reduction, or other purposes during the same period. Whether that spending converts into future earnings remains an open question.

The more consequential development for investors may be how it is being financed: as free cash flow turns negative, the buildout shifts from self-funded to dependent on debt and equity markets, introducing sensitivity to credit conditions and investor appetite alongside the underlying business risk. For clients, the practical consideration is not a verdict on these companies but an awareness of concentration. Given the weight these names carry in broad market indices, portfolio exposure to this single spending cycle may be larger than it appears.

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Why Has Oil Not Rallied to $150 or Higher?

What Issues Should I Consider When Harvesting Capital Losses?

Tax-loss harvesting is a popular strategy, but it’s not always clear whether it’s the right strategy for your needs. With our checklist, you will be better prepared to help your clients determine whether harvesting capital losses is appropriate for their financial situation.

This checklist covers some key issues to consider when a client and/or advisor are thinking of implementing a tax-loss harvesting strategy, such as:

The effect harvesting losses may have on your overall portfolio goals.
Some common pitfalls and rules to be aware of when harvesting losses.
The potential tax benefits and consequences that may arise.
How long-term goals may be affected by tax-loss harvesting.

Download Our Checklist

A light week for economic and market news, with housing and manufacturing data on the docket. Corporate earnings from consumer-facing companies — Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and Target (TGT) — will be watched closely for a read on the health of the consumer.

Major equity indices continue to hover near all-time highs, boosted by a record-breaking earnings season. With investor positioning coming into the rally on the light side, recent strength appears to carry a “positioning chase” component as well. Notably, value-oriented indices (Russell 1000 Value, international developed, Europe, small caps) are trading stronger than their growth-oriented counterparts (Russell 1000 Growth, the Nasdaq, semiconductors, Korea).

In fixed income, last week’s softer inflation and retail sales data pushed short-term yields lower as the odds of an imminent Fed hike receded — yet long-term yields held near recent highs, steepening the curve, a dynamic NewEdge has dubbed the “Zoo Steepener.” This week’s notes include a primer on the yield curve and what drives it at different maturities.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	-0.14%	0.28%	3.80%	3.67%	13.57%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-0.29%	-0.74%	2.08%	2.40%	11.47%
NASDAQ	-0.02%	0.45%	5.32%	1.95%	14.98%
NASDAQ 100	-0.05%	1.38%	6.21%	-0.81%	18.94%
Russell 1000	-0.16%	0.31%	4.01%	3.73%	14.25%
Russell 2000	-0.48%	0.69%	4.27%	1.06%	23.86%
Russell 3000	-0.16%	0.34%	3.98%	3.61%	14.69%
ACWI	0.04%	0.56%	3.78%	3.43%	15.49%

Global Client Survey

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending August 14, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending August 7, 2026

Jason Foster — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 18:17:29 +0000

The Older We Get the Faster Time Goes

Why Time Feels Faster: You have probably noticed that a year does not feel as long as it used to. Back in 1877, a French philosopher named Paul Janet suggested a reason. Every year you live gets measured against all the years that came before it, so the pile you are comparing it to keeps growing.

What the Chart Shows: At age 10, one year is a full tenth of everything you have lived. At 50, that same year is only 2%. At 100, it is 1%. The year itself never gets shorter. It just keeps shrinking next to the life behind it.

What It Means for You: This is worth keeping in mind when we talk about the timing of your goals, whether that is travel, family time, or something you have been putting off. Let’s make sure your plan reflects not just what you can afford, but when you will most enjoy it. Any changes we consider will account for longevity, healthcare costs, and what you want to leave behind.

Bond Markets Throw Shade on New Fed Chair’s Inflation Strategy

S&P Hits Record High

Goldman Sacks’ “Balancing Innovation and Inflation in Portfolios”

SpaceX earnings takeaways

Fed Scours Fresh Inflation Data for Interest-Rate Cues as Mid-Term Elections Loom

Am I Impacted By The Social Security Fairness Act?

Navigating the changes brought by the Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 can be complex, but it’s crucial for your financial plan. The repeal of the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset (GPO) may increase your benefits and overall income stream.

To help, we’ve created the “Am I Impacted by the Social Security Fairness Act?” flowchart. It addresses key considerations such as:

How benefit increases will be applied
Potential planning considerations for spousal or survivor benefits
The impact on how one pays for Medicare premiums
Considerations for retiring sooner
The importance of updating contact information

Download Our Guide

Markets are looking to extend last week’s strength, which saw major indices rally sharply to new highs. The move was driven by a sharp rebound in the Magnificent 7 and the broader tech cohort — yet, notably, these more growth-oriented indices (Mag 7, semiconductors, the Technology sector, Russell 1000 Growth, the Korean KOSPI) remain below their all-time highs, while more value-oriented measures (the equal-weight S&P 500, Russell 1000 Value, MSCI International Developed, STOXX Europe 50) are already back at new highs. That mix is keeping breadth healthy even as some of the index’s largest weights play catch-up.

Monday also brings a wave of upgrades to sell-side S&P 500 price targets, with strength in earnings cited for the bullishness. Second-quarter results have been extraordinary: 88% of companies have beaten estimates — well above average — delivering roughly 50% earnings growth (about 32% adjusting for one-time items at Amazon and Alphabet). Revenue growth has been strong too, running near 15%, boosted by Energy (+43% YoY) and Technology (+36% YoY); even excluding those two sectors, revenues are growing about 9.7% YoY.

On the economic calendar, markets will look to Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI for a catalyst to shift Fed rate-hike expectations. Even after last week’s softer jobs data, the bond market is still pricing a 43% chance of a September hike. Retail sales this week will also offer a read on how consumers are holding up, with prices continuing to rise faster than wages.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	0.62%	2.07%	3.58%	3.44%	13.32%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	0.28%	1.61%	2.96%	3.28%	12.43%
NASDAQ	1.30%	3.00%	5.19%	1.82%	14.84%
NASDAQ 100	1.19%	3.29%	5.12%	-1.83%	17.71%
Russell 1000	0.75%	3.69%	3.69%	3.40%	13.89%
Russell 2000	1.11%	3.56%	3.56%	0.37%	23.02%
Russell 3000	0.76%	3.63%	3.63%	3.26%	14.30%
ACWI	0.84%	3.20%	3.20%	2.85%	14.84%

Global Client Survey

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending August 7, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending July 31, 2026

Jason Foster — Mon, 03 Aug 2026 18:53:21 +0000

Measuring the 52-Week Drawdown

This week’s chart examines the 52-week drawdown — the percentage decline from a stock’s highest price over the trailing year to its most recent price — for a group of well-known household names, set alongside the S&P 500 for context.

The individual companies shown currently sit materially further below their 52-week highs than the index itself. That gap illustrates a pattern worth noting: even widely recognized, established businesses can experience deep and prolonged pullbacks, while a broad market index — composed of hundreds of companies — has moved through the same period with far less erosion from its own high.

Investment Implications

The contrast reflects a structural difference, not a coincidence. A diversified index does not depend on the fortunes of any single company; strength in some names can offset weakness in others. Individual securities, by contrast, carry the full weight of their own business results, competitive pressures, and market sentiment. This week’s chart is a reminder that headlines about “the market” and headlines about a specific stock can tell very different stories — and that diversification remains one of the more durable tools for managing that difference over time.

Bond Markets Throw Shade on New Fed Chair’s Inflation Strategy

Rule Changes Could Make This Charitable Giving Vehicle Even More Popular

The US has stepped in to buy Japanese yen. Why?

Should you self-fund long-term care?

Most older adults will need some form of long‑term care, but the level, duration, and cost are hard to forecast. Some people who qualify for insurance may opt to self-fund, while others may benefit from a blended approach using both insurance and savings. If you’re considering self-funding, it’s important to assess which assets are available and liquid, tax implications, and how that plan may align with inheritance goals.

Download Fidelity’s Self-funding long-term care article

The equity market’s resilience over the past two months has been notable. Despite acute weakness in some of the index’s largest names (including the Magnificent 7), a leverage unwind in the year’s most popular trade — semiconductors and AI infrastructure — a shift toward both greater Fed hawkishness and Fed uncertainty that has lifted yields across the curve, and continued Middle East tensions, the S&P 500 has shown remarkably little volatility. At its maximum drawdown the index was down only about 4% from its highs — too shallow to qualify as a correction or even a pullback, which NewEdge has characterized as a “wobble.” The index is now rebounding robustly, propelled by the Magnificent 7, a cohort that had lagged year-to-date and seen its group valuation fall by roughly a third over the past nine months. Given the Mag 7’s weight in the index (over 30%), outsized moves in these names carry outsized impact on returns.

This week brings another wave of earnings alongside key labor data, with nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Consensus looks for 80k jobs added and a stable 4.2% unemployment rate — a print that will shape expectations for Fed action at the September meeting, where the market currently prices a 63% probability of a hike. The move higher in long-term yields following last week’s meeting — including a push to new highs in the 30-Year TIPS yield — speaks to the bond market’s growing unease about a potentially complacent Fed, sticky inflation, and heavy debt supply from both public and private issuers

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	0.70%	1.03%	0.00%	-0.13%	9.41%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	0.53%	0.53%	0.00%	0.32%	9.20%
NASDAQ	1.00%	1.77%	0.00%	-3.20%	9.17%
NASDAQ 100	0.60%	0.84%	0.00%	-6.61%	11.98%
Russell 1000	0.64%	1.04%	-0.27%	-0.27%	9.84%
Russell 2000	-0.48%	0.01%	-3.08%	-3.08%	18.79%
Russell 3000	0.58%	1.00%	-0.36%	-0.36%	10.30%
ACWI	0.49%	1.38%	-0.34%	-0.34%	11.28%

Global Client Survey

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending July 31, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending July 24, 2026

Jason Foster — Wed, 29 Jul 2026 16:36:07 +0000

When Headlines Get Loud, Discipline Gets Rewarded

Markets have had a turbulent stretch. U.S. stocks fell for the week amid renewed Middle East tensions, with military strikes resuming and the administration threatening to reinstate a surcharge on cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Technology led the decline, off roughly 4% on the week, and semiconductor stocks have corrected more than 20% from their June 22 peak, even as year-to-date gains in the group remain substantial. The S&P 500 itself closed down about 1% on July 17, settling at 7,457.69.

It would be easy to read a week like this as a signal to step to the sidelines. The data says otherwise. Despite the noise, the S&P 500 has still added roughly 9% year to date, building on a return of 9.7% since January 1, 2026 — resilience that’s notable given headwinds including trade-policy uncertainty and elevated oil prices tied to the Iran conflict.

This is precisely the pattern the accompanying J.P. Morgan chart illustrates. A hypothetical $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 and left fully invested grew to roughly $75,000 over the period studied, a 10.60% annualized return. Missing just the 10 best trading days cut that return nearly in half, to 6.37%. Missing 20 or 30 of the best days reduced it further still, to 3.69% and 1.53%, respectively. The reason this matters isn’t abstract: seven of the ten best days on record occurred within 15 days of the ten worst days. The rebound and the selloff tend to travel together — which is exactly what a portfolio in cash risks missing.

The lesson for weeks like this one isn’t to ignore volatility. It’s to recognize that reacting to it is often more costly than sitting through it. Staying invested — not attempting to time the reentry — has historically been the strategy that captured the recovery.

After the Reset: Time to Focus on Fundamentals

4 Big Questions About the Economy

Oil Rockets Towards $100

Saudi Nuclear Deal Confusion Threatens Billions in Potential US Manufacturing Sales

Mounting US Budget Deficit Complicates Fed’s Interest Rate Choices

Common Savings Accounts for Children

Many parents want to start setting money aside for their children, but they’re often unsure about where they should actually save the money.

There are several options available. Some accounts remain in the parents’ names and can be gifted later, offering flexibility. Others involve irrevocable gifts that permanently belong to the child. Some strategies provide tax advantages, while others prioritize control or simplicity.

To help support these conversations, We’ve put together this guide that walks through several common ways parents save for children, highlighting the pros and cons of each option and why someone might consider one strategy over another.

Understand common savings options for children
Compare flexibility vs. tax benefits
Recognize when a strategy involves irrevocable gifting
Start thoughtful conversations about family planning goals

Download Our Guide

Markets opened the week with a relief rally after a soft finish to last week, when stocks came under pressure following a poor reception to Alphabet’s (GOOG/GOOGL) earnings. Investors soured on heavy capital-expenditure plans that pushed free cash flow negative for the quarter — the company spent more on capex than it generated in operating cash flow. That capex debate will be tested further this week as hyperscalers Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) all report earnings.

A full one-third of the S&P 500 reports earnings this week. Second-quarter earnings season has been notably strong, with growth tracking at an eye-popping 37.9% — though that figure is skewed higher by a large one-time gain at Alphabet; excluding it, growth would be a still-robust 25.9%.

The Fed also delivers its July rate decision this week. As of Monday, the market is pricing a 34% probability of a hike — a notably high and ambiguous reading this close to the meeting date. The week’s most important economic data — Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation, spending, and income — will be released after the Fed’s decision.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	-1.13%	-2.05%	-2.06%	-2.06%	7.30%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-1.75%	-0.75%	-0.94%	-0.94%	7.83%
NASDAQ	-1.46%	-4.59%	-6.49%	-6.49%	5.47%
NASDAQ 100	-1.75%	-5.94%	-9.91%	-9.91%	8.03%
iShares Russell 1000 ETF	-1.21%	-1.96%	-2.15%	-2.15%	7.78%
iShares Russell 2000 ETF	-1.63%	-1.77%	-3.95%	-3.95%	17.72%
iShares Russell 3000 ETF	-1.19%	-2.13%	-2.22%	-2.22%	8.24%
iShares ACWI ETF	-1.24%	-2.35%	-2.77%	-2.77%	8.57%

Global Client Survey

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending July 24, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending July 17, 2026

Jason Foster — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 18:13:14 +0000

Tracking Earnings Revisions

This chart illustrates how Wall Street’s bottom-up consensus estimate for S&P 500 earnings per share has evolved across three upcoming quarters. Each line traces the path of analyst expectations for a given quarter as new information comes to light. Consensus EPS estimates currently stand at $82.62 for Q2 2026, $88.68 for Q3 2026, and $91.81 for Q4 2026. Each line reflects how expectations for that quarter have shifted since the start of the year.

The direction of earnings revisions has long served as a useful gauge of corporate fundamentals — rising estimates typically reflect improving profit expectations, while declining estimates often signal growing caution among analysts. As always, estimates are subject to change and are not a guarantee of future earnings.

Fed’s Warsh Promises Congress a Hard Line on Inflation Amid Looming Risks

Wall Street Takes In Record Haul, Projecting US Economic Health

The House passed a bill to make daylight saving time permanent

Battered Energy Markets Brace for Second Wartime Disruption

Understanding Trump Accounts

Established under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and officially launched on July 4, 2026, Trump Accounts represent a new category of tax-advantaged savings vehicle for American children. Structured as a form of traditional IRA under IRC §530A, these accounts are designed to give the next generation an early foothold in long-term investing.

Key features clients should know:

Eligibility: Any U.S. child under age 18 with a Social Security number qualifies. The account is held in the child’s name, with a parent or guardian serving as custodian until age 18.
Seed funding: Children born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028, may qualify for a one-time $1,000 federal contribution under a pilot program.
Contribution limits: Up to $5,000 per year may be contributed with after-tax dollars, growing tax-deferred. Employers, charitable organizations, and government entities may also contribute on a child’s behalf.
Investment structure: During childhood, holdings are restricted to low-cost U.S. equity index funds or ETFs, with fees capped by law.
At age 18: The account converts automatically into a traditional IRA, allowing the funds to continue growing for retirement, education, entrepreneurship, or a first home purchase.
Administration: Accounts are initially managed by BNY, in partnership with Robinhood, though they can be rolled over to another financial institution.

A note on planning implications: For families already funding 529 plans or custodial accounts, a Trump Account adds another tool to the estate and education-planning toolkit. Because contribution limits, investment restrictions, and beneficiary rules differ from other vehicles, we recommend clients speak with their advisor before deciding how a Trump Account fits alongside existing savings strategies.

For clients who want to learn more or begin the enrollment process, the official source for eligibility, enrollment, and account details is TrumpAccounts.gov.

Equities

U.S. equity markets declined for the week as a selloff in semiconductor and AI-related names outweighed encouraging inflation data, firm energy prices, and a strong start to Q2 earnings season.
Early earnings results have been favorable: 88% of reporting S&P 500 companies have beaten EPS estimates, with blended earnings growth of 24.7%, reflecting profit strength beyond the “Magnificent Seven.”
The S&P 500 fell 1.55%, while the Nasdaq declined more sharply as growth stocks underperformed value; the Russell 2000 held up relatively well, losing just 0.51%.
Energy led sector performance (+4.99%) as oil climbed to $82.49 per barrel amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, while information technology (-3.78%) and communication services (-2.38%) lagged.
Developed international markets fell 0.81%, outperforming U.S. large caps, while emerging markets declined 4.10%.

Bonds

Fixed income markets posted modest gains as cooler-than-expected inflation data supported Treasuries, even against a backdrop of renewed geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.55% and the 2-year yield rose to 4.18%, widening the 2-10 year spread to 0.37%.
Short- and intermediate-duration government and investment-grade bonds posted small gains, while longer-duration issues remained pressured by higher yields.
High-yield bonds were little changed, reflecting resilient credit fundamentals despite broader market volatility.

Macroeconomic Data

June CPI came in below expectations, with headline inflation falling 0.4% month-over-month — the largest monthly decline since 2020 — bringing the year-over-year rate down to 3.5% as lower energy prices offset continued strength in shelter and services.
Producer prices also eased, reinforcing signs that inflation pressure is moderating.
Consumer spending remained resilient: June retail sales rose 0.2%, with core retail sales up a stronger 0.5%, supported by solid auto and online purchases.
The labor market showed little sign of deterioration, with initial jobless claims falling to 208,000.
Industrial production increased modestly, and consumer sentiment improved, suggesting household confidence remains steady despite geopolitical uncertainty and elevated oil prices.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)	Total Return (2025)
S&P 500	-1.01%	-0.77%	-0.56%	-0.56%	8.94%	16.39%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-0.77%	-0.67%	-0.33%	-0.33%	8.50%	12.97%
NASDAQ	-1.40%	-1.36%	-2.65%	-2.65%	9.80%	20.36%
NASDAQ 100	-1.49%	-2.29%	-5.56%	-5.56%	13.24%	20.17%
Russell 1000	-1.02%	-1.55%	-0.68%	-0.68%	9.39%	17.18%
Russell 2000	-0.52%	-0.66%	-2.13%	-2.13%	19.95%	12.66%
Russell 3000 ETF	-0.97%	-1.43%	-0.70%	-0.70%	9.92%	16.96%
ACWI (International All Country World Index)	-0.87%	-1.70%	-1.26%	-1.26%	10.26%	22.41%

Global Client Survey

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending July 17, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending July 10, 2026

Jason Foster — Mon, 13 Jul 2026 18:16:57 +0000

Hot Topic: What Nvidia’s Valuation Multiple Is Really Telling Us

Nvidia’s forward price-to-earnings ratio — a measure comparing its share price to expected earnings over the next twelve months — currently stands at 19.9x. That’s near the low end of its range since 2019, and a steep drop from the roughly 65x peak reached in late 2021.

The key detail: this decline hasn’t come from a falling stock price. Nvidia shares have continued to climb. Instead, earnings estimates have grown even faster than the share price, which has steadily compressed the multiple over time.

A shrinking valuation multiple alongside a rising stock price has historically pointed to earnings growth outpacing price appreciation — not speculative excess. For clients who are uneasy about AI-related valuations, this is a useful data point for shifting the conversation from headlines back to fundamentals.

Oil Market is Attempting a System Reboot

Bank Earnings Bonanza Offers Top-to-Bottom Review of US Economy

Oil Jumps After Battle for Hormuz Control Escalates

Why Risk Tolerance and Risk Capacity Aren’t the Same Thing

When we build an investment strategy, two questions matter: how much risk are you willing to take, and how much risk can you afford to take. These sound similar, but they’re distinct — and treating them as one number can lead to the wrong portfolio.

Risk tolerance is about temperament — your comfort with market swings and your ability to stay invested through a downturn without losing sleep or abandoning the plan.

Risk capacity is about circumstance — your time horizon, income needs, and financial resources, which determine whether your goals could withstand a market setback.

Many traditional questionnaires blend these into a single score, which can create mismatches. A client with substantial assets and decades until retirement might score as having high capacity for risk — but if that same client has genuinely low tolerance for volatility, a blended score can still steer them toward a portfolio they can’t emotionally sustain through a downturn. The reverse is also true: a client eager to take on risk but with limited savings and near-term cash needs could be pushed into a portfolio their situation simply can’t support.

Our approach: rather than averaging tolerance and capacity together, we evaluate them separately. Each one acts as a check on the other — low tolerance or low capacity serves as a constraint on the portfolio we recommend, rather than being offset by a stronger score elsewhere. For clients with a comprehensive financial plan, the plan’s own projections (including probability-of-success modeling) offer a direct read on risk capacity, which we pair with a separate conversation about comfort and attitudes toward market risk.

The client benefit: a portfolio that reflects both what you can afford and what you’re comfortable with — not just a number that averages the two and quietly overlooks the more limiting one.

SOURCE: Kitces.com

Equities

U.S. equity markets posted mixed but resilient results this week, as renewed geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran drove volatility across oil prices, Treasury yields, and semiconductor stocks.
The S&P 500 rose 1.26% and the Nasdaq advanced 1.74%, with growth outpacing value amid continued enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.
Large-cap companies outperformed small- and mid-cap peers, as economically sensitive segments underperformed due to rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty weighing on industrial and value-oriented names.
Information Technology led all sectors (+3.4%), while Materials, Health Care, and Industrials lagged.
Energy rebounded meaningfully as oil prices recovered much of their recent decline.
International markets underperformed U.S. large caps, with developed markets down 1.37% and emerging markets down 1.74%.

Bonds

Fixed income markets declined as Treasury yields rose meaningfully, driven by renewed geopolitical tensions and related inflation concerns.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.56%, while the 2-year yield rose seven basis points to 4.21%, holding the 2–10 year spread steady at 0.35%.
Longer-duration bonds bore the brunt of the move, with long-term investment-grade corporates down 1.3% and long-term government bonds down over 1.0%.
High-yield bonds were the relative bright spot, with short- and intermediate-duration issues gaining 0.4% as improving risk sentiment and tighter credit spreads helped offset rising yields.

Macroeconomic Data

Economic data was limited this week as markets focused on the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes.
ISM Services PMI eased slightly to 54.0 in June from 54.5 in May, in line with expectations and marking 24 consecutive months of expansion; employment improved, though new orders and business activity softened.
Existing home sales fell 2.4% in June to an annualized rate of 4.09 million, as elevated prices and mortgage rates continued to pressure affordability.
The Fed held interest rates steady at its June meeting, with unanimous support, though a few members had initially considered a hike.
Looking ahead, the committee remains divided: one group anticipates rates holding flat or declining, while another expects further increases may be necessary before year-end.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	0.42%	0.50%	1.01%	1.01%	10.66%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	0.29%	-0.79%	0.61%	0.61%	9.52%
NASDAQ	0.29%	0.61%	0.26%	0.26%	13.08%
NASDAQ 100	0.33%	0.43%	-1.49%	-1.49%	18.12%
Russell 1000	0.36%	1.07%	0.88%	0.88%	11.12%
Russell 2000	-0.42%	-0.53%	-1.48%	-1.48%	20.74%
Russell 3000	0.27%	1.01%	0.74%	0.74%	11.52%
ACWI	0.42%	0.98%	0.45%	0.45%	12.17%

Global Client Survey

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending July 10, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending July 3, 2026

Jason Foster — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 18:12:21 +0000

Small Caps Take the Lead in a Historic Reversal

Each year, we track the first-half performance spread between U.S. small-cap and large-cap stocks, a comparison that has spanned market cycles since 2005. Over that period, small caps have lagged their large-cap counterparts in 14 of the past 21 first halves, with particularly steep underperformance in 2020 (-10.0%) and again in 2024 (-13.5%). This year broke sharply from that pattern: through the first half of 2026, small caps outperformed large caps by 12.3%, one of the most decisive reversals in the dataset’s history.

A shift of this magnitude, following years of small-cap underperformance, may point to a broader change in market leadership. That said, a single strong half does not confirm a durable trend, and history has shown that leadership rotations can be short-lived. For investors, the takeaway is less about predicting the next rotation and more about being positioned for it: those maintaining diversified exposure across market capitalizations are better equipped to benefit from shifts like this one, without needing to time them precisely.

OpenAI, Anthropic Speed Toward IPOs Amid Growing Scrutiny of Token Payments

America’s first bubble

OPEC+ Decides to Boost Production Further in August

What Issues Should I Consider When Reviewing Cash Flow?

Sound cash flow planning is the foundation on which every effective financial plan is built. Most clients understand, at least in principle, the importance of tracking and managing their spending. Yet even well-intentioned individuals often struggle to take the basic steps required to turn that understanding into practice. A clear view of where money comes from and where it goes creates the discipline and accountability that support every other planning decision that follows.

A thoughtful review of cash flow considers several core areas: income sources, essential versus discretionary spending, outstanding debt and tax obligations, funding for near- and long-term goals, and the ongoing monitoring needed to keep a plan on track. Addressing these areas with intention, rather than assumption, gives clients a stronger foundation for the decisions ahead and can have a meaningful, lasting impact on their long-term financial well-being.

Download Our Check List

Equities

U.S. large-cap stocks advanced 1.8% during the holiday-shortened week, as a softer June employment report eased concerns over near-term Fed rate hikes
Growth outpaced value, and larger companies outperformed their small- and mid-cap peers
Communication services (+5.0%) and financials (+3.7%) led sector performance, while real estate, utilities, and energy declined
Developed international markets rose 2.8%, outperforming U.S. large caps, while emerging markets gained 1.0%
Oil settled near $69 per barrel as U.S.-Iran peace efforts continued, even as Strait of Hormuz shipping activity remained below prewar levels

Bonds

Bonds declined as Treasury yields rose over the week, despite a brief pullback following the weaker employment report
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.49%, while the 2-year yield increased seven basis points to 4.14%, steepening the 2–10 year curve to 0.35%
Longer-duration bonds saw the sharpest losses, with long-term government bonds down 1.6% and long-term investment-grade corporates down 1.1%
High-yield bonds bucked the trend, advancing across the maturity spectrum, including a 1.2% gain among longer-duration issues, as improving risk sentiment and tighter credit spreads offset rising Treasury yields

Macroeconomic Data

June nonfarm payrolls rose by just 57,000 while the unemployment rate declined to 4.2%, pointing to a labor market that is cooling but still resilient
April and May payroll gains were revised down by a combined 74,000; average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and 3.5% year over year
JOLTS data showed job openings holding steady at 7.6 million in May, with hires unchanged at 5.2 million
Initial unemployment claims edged down to 215,000
The ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 from 54.0, marking a sixth consecutive month of expansion, with new orders holding strong and input-price pressures moderating
Consumer confidence ticked up to 91.2 in June, while May construction spending rose 0.1% but remained 1.5% below year-earlier levels

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return ( MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return ( YTD)
S&P 500	0.00%	0.58%	-0.21%	-0.21%	9.32%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	1.14%	1.37%	1.11%	1.11%	10.06%
NASDAQ	-0.80%	0.05%	-1.45%	-1.45%	11.15%
NASDAQ 100	-1.61%	-1.50%	-3.13%	-3.13%	16.16%
Russell 1000	-0.03%	1.83%	-0.18%	-0.18%	9.94%
Russell 2000	-0.58%	-0.44%	-0.96%	-0.96%	21.39%
Russell 3000	-0.08%	1.70%	-0.27%	-0.27%	10.40%
ACWI	0.02%	0.94%	-0.52%	-0.52%	11.08%

Global Client Survey

Take Our Survey Now (click here)

Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending July 3, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending June 26, 2026

Jason Foster — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 18:41:02 +0000

The Big Picture: Short-Term Noise, Long-Term Optimism

Over the next couple of weeks, the market is expected to be driven more by technical mechanics than by economic news or corporate fundamentals. Think of it like traffic getting rerouted — the destination hasn’t changed, just the short-term path.

Why the Next Two Weeks May Feel Bumpy

Three big “housekeeping” events are happening simultaneously:

A Historic Options Expiration — The market is absorbing what Citadel describes as the largest options expiration on record, valued at approximately $8.3 trillion. Options are essentially contracts that expire on a set date — when a massive number expire at once, it can cause unusual short-term price swings as traders adjust their positions.
Quarter-End & Half-Year Rebalancing — Pension funds and other large institutional investors are repositioning their portfolios at quarter-end and half-year, which adds additional buying and selling pressure. This is routine — like a big spring cleaning of investment portfolios — but the sheer size of it matters right now.
Positioning Reset — Many large investors are essentially “resetting” their bets heading into the second half of the year. Any short-term market weakness tied to these events is largely mechanical, not a sign of economic trouble.

The Good News: July and Beyond Look Strong

Once this technical noise passes, the outlook becomes quite positive:

Everyday investors are all-in. Retail demand is at record highs, and households are sitting on record cash balances, ready to deploy on any market dip — a “buy the dip” behavior Citadel observes on most down trading days.
ETF inflows are surging. ETFs have attracted over $1 trillion in inflows year-to-date, running 45% ahead of the record set in 2025. This means money keeps flowing steadily into the market through index funds.
Companies are buying back their own stock — aggressively. Corporate buyback authorizations have surpassed $925 billion year-to-date through mid-2026. Technology and financial companies alone account for roughly 57% of all announced buybacks, reinforcing demand in the same sectors already benefiting from strong investor interest. When companies buy back their own shares, it tends to support stock prices.
July is historically one of the best months of the year. Seasonal patterns show that fresh capital tends to get deployed in July as investors start the second half of the year with renewed energy.

The Bottom Line

Citadel believes the path of least resistance for markets is higher as we transition into the second half of the year. In other words: expect some short-term choppiness tied to calendar mechanics, but the underlying forces — strong investor demand, corporate buying, and seasonal tailwinds — all point in a positive direction.

SOURCE: Citadel Securities

Quantum Strategy Helps IBM Steer Around Tech Wreck

World Cup visitors are going viral for their reactions to everyday American life

Trump Admin Teams with Startup on ‘Noah’s Ark’ of Endangered Species DNA

Oil Price Bubble Has Burst

Where Should I Withdraw My Next Dollar From For Retirement Expenses?

Making tax-efficient retirement withdrawals can significantly impact a client’s long-term financial success. Whether the need is for income, healthcare, education, or charitable giving, each withdrawal decision comes with implications that can affect portfolio longevity and taxation.

This flowchart helps you walk through the decision of where to make their next retirement withdrawal. It covers:

Common retirement expenses such as income needs, medical costs, education, and charitable giving
Tax treatment of accounts like IRAs, Roth IRAs, HSAs, and 529s
How to avoid penalties and be cognizant of AGI thresholds and tax bracket shifts
Strategic use of QCDs and capital gains harvesting
How to minimize taxes while meeting short- and long-term goals

Download Our Guide

Equities

U.S. large-cap stocks declined last week, pressured by sharp losses in technology and communication services sectors
Mid- and small-cap stocks bucked the trend, posting modest gains for the week
Value continued to outperform growth across all market cap segments, extending a trend that has defined much of the year
Technology sold off despite a blockbuster quarterly report from Micron, which posted record revenue and profit driven by surging AI-related memory chip demand
Health care was the top-performing sector, gaining nearly 8%, as investors rotated out of technology and into more defensive areas of the market
U.S.-Iran tensions continued to ease, with the ceasefire holding and tanker traffic returning to the Strait of Hormuz — helping oil prices extend their retreat from spring highs
Developed international markets modestly outperformed U.S. large caps; emerging markets underperformed

Bonds

Bonds gained broadly last week as Treasury yields declined across the curve
Government bonds led the rally, with longer-duration issues outperforming shorter-term maturities
The 10-year Treasury yield closed the week at 4.38%; the 2-year yield finished at 4.07%
The larger decline in the 2-year yield modestly steepened the 2-10 year slope to 0.31%
Investment-grade corporate bonds advanced but trailed government debt, particularly on the long end
High-yield bonds lagged across the curve
Credit spreads widened only marginally — a brief pause following steady tightening for most of the quarter
Investment-grade corporates ended the week yielding 5.14%; high-yield bonds closed at 7.49%

Macroeconomic Data

Core PCE — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure — rose 0.3% for the month and 3.4% year-over-year, the highest annual reading since October 2023
Headline PCE rose 4.1% year-over-year, the highest level since April 2023
Personal income increased 0.7% for the month, boosted in part by one-time farm proprietors’ income tied to American Relief Act and USDA disaster relief payments
Consumer spending also rose 0.7%; the personal saving rate held steady at 3.0%
First-quarter GDP was revised upward to 2.1% from an initial estimate of 1.6%, primarily reflecting a downward revision to imports
The S&P Global flash Manufacturing PMI climbed to 55.7 in June, its strongest reading since May 2022, though manufacturing employment fell at its sharpest pace since the pandemic
The final June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading came in at 49.5 — up from May’s record low but still near historic lows; long-run inflation expectations eased slightly to 3.3%

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return ( 1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	0.94%	-0.66%	-2.07%	13.71%	8.44%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	0.70%	1.02%	2.36%	12.72%	8.69%
NASDAQ	1.47%	-1.90%	-4.83%	18.89%	10.45%
NASDAQ 100	1.39%	-2.71%	-2.67%	24.36%	16.92%
Russell 1000	1.32%	-0.72%	-1.60%	13.95%	9.06%
Russell 2000	-0.62%	0.81%	2.84%	20.44%	21.56%
Russell 3000	1.17%	-0.65%	-1.34%	14.14%	9.58%
ACWI	0.65%	-1.56%	-1.42%	12.95%	10.46%

Global Client Survey

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending June 26, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending June 19, 2026

Jason Foster — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 13:03:48 +0000

The Retirement Math Most People Get Wrong

There is a concept in longevity planning called conditional life expectancy, and it changes the retirement conversation entirely. Unlike the life expectancy figures most people reference — those assigned at birth — conditional life expectancy tells you how long you are statistically expected to live based on the age you have already reached. The implication is counterintuitive but important: the older you get, the longer you are likely to live.

The data makes this concrete. A 50-year-old man today can expect to live to approximately 80; a woman of the same age, to 83. But reaching 80 is not the finish line — it is a recalibration point. A man who reaches 80 now carries a life expectancy of 89. If he reaches 90, that number climbs to 94. Women live longer than men at every age along this curve, though the gap narrows — from roughly three years at age 50 to approximately one year by age 90. In other words, making it to 80 does not mean a person is near the end of their statistical runway. It means the odds of reaching their 90s just increased considerably.

The planning implication is direct. A 30-year retirement — from 65 to 95 — was once an outlier. It is now a realistic planning horizon for a meaningful portion of the population. The harder problem, then, is not running out of time. It is the risk of outliving financial resources. That requires income strategies built to hold up well into a client’s 90s, a spending pace calibrated to go the distance, and coverage solutions designed around a longer life than most people instinctively plan for. Longevity is no longer a tail risk. For many clients, it is the baseline.

Memory Crunch Prompts Bets on Micron Earnings Blowout

Uranium Deal Powers Up Nuclear Fission Firm Oklo

Bitcoin Bulls Grope Around for the Floor

Foundation in Digital Assets, Part 5: How Investors Gain Exposure

In the first four parts of this series, we explored the technology behind digital assets, the distinction between digital currency and cryptocurrency, the regulatory framework stablecoins now operate within, and how decentralized finance is reshaping traditional lending and borrowing. In this final installment, we turn to a practical question: if a client wants exposure to digital assets, how do they actually get it?

There are three primary pathways, each carrying a distinct set of trade-offs.

Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs). The most significant development in this space has been the arrival of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. market. Approved by the SEC in January 2024 for Bitcoin and July 2024 for Ethereum, these products eliminated the need for direct cryptocurrency custody while providing regulated exposure to digital assets. The ETP market has since expanded to include products tracking XRP, Solana, and multi-asset crypto indices. Major wealth management platforms — including Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Vanguard — have opened access to Bitcoin ETFs for their clients, a shift that marks a meaningful transition from early-adopter territory toward mainstream distribution. ETPs offer accessibility and familiarity; they trade on regulated exchanges and sit inside existing brokerage accounts. Their limitation is that they track the price of an underlying asset — investors do not hold the asset itself. XT.comDL News

Direct Ownership. Investors may also purchase digital assets directly through regulated exchanges and hold them in a digital wallet. This approach provides full ownership of the asset but introduces a layer of responsibility that traditional investing does not: custody. Unlike a brokerage account, where an established institution holds assets on your behalf, direct ownership requires a deliberate decision about how and where to store private keys. Losses from lost credentials or exchange failures are generally not recoverable.

Custody Considerations. Whether an investor chooses an ETP or direct ownership, custody deserves careful attention. Self-custody — storing assets in a personal hardware wallet — provides maximum control but also maximum responsibility. Institutional custody through regulated providers offers infrastructure and insurance, but introduces counterparty exposure. Neither approach is inherently superior; the right choice depends on the investor’s technical comfort, risk tolerance, and overall portfolio context.

Digital asset exposure has become more accessible than at any prior point in the asset class’s history. That accessibility does not change the underlying risk profile. Volatility remains elevated relative to most traditional asset classes, and the appropriate role — if any — for digital assets in a given client’s portfolio is a conversation best held within the context of their broader financial plan.

This concludes the Foundation in Digital Assets series. We hope this five-part framework has provided a clearer vocabulary for evaluating digital assets with discipline and perspective.

Source: Educational framework adapted from materials published by the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals (DACFP), an independent educational organization recognized by the CFP Board of Standards, CFA Institute, and listed in FINRA’s database of professional designations.

Equities

Equity markets advanced on easing Middle East tensions and falling oil prices, with gains broad enough to overcome a hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve
Small-cap stocks led the way, outpacing large- and mid-caps; growth outperformed value across the board, with the widest gap in small-caps
Seven of eleven S&P 500 sectors finished higher, led by Information Technology and Industrials
Utilities was a notable exception among defensives, posting solid gains; Consumer Staples and Health Care were the week’s laggards
Energy was the worst-performing sector as oil prices fell on optimism surrounding Iran peace talks
International equities outperformed domestic markets; emerging markets surged more than 7%, buoyed by the oil price pullback

Bonds

Bond markets were mixed — long-duration issues rallied while short and intermediate maturities slipped into negative territory
Long government bonds led fixed income performance; high-yield outperformed Treasuries and investment-grade corporates at the short and intermediate segments
The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.19%, driven by a sharp Wednesday move as the FOMC’s hawkish tone repriced rate-hike expectations; the 10-year held near flat at 4.46%, narrowing the 2-10 spread to just 0.27%
The U.S. Aggregate Index ended the week yielding 4.74%; the U.S. Corporate Index closed at 5.20%

Macroeconomic Data

The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% in a unanimous vote — widely expected — but the updated Summary of Economic Projections delivered a hawkish surprise, with the median dot now pointing to a rate hike by year-end, reversing March’s projection for a cut
In his first press conference as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh declined to submit his own dot or offer forward guidance, and announced five internal task forces to review Fed communications, balance sheet policy, data sources, productivity and jobs, and the inflation framework — with most work targeted for completion by year-end
Retail sales rose 0.9% in May, beating expectations; even stripping out the boost from higher gasoline prices, the control group topped forecasts
Industrial production edged up just 0.1%, below expectations, with manufacturing output flat and capacity utilization holding modestly below its long-term average

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	-0.37%	-0.51%	-1.42%	14.46%	9.16%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	0.29%	-0.55%	1.33%	11.59%	7.59%
NASDAQ	-1.32%	-0.80%	-2.99%	21.19%	12.58%
NASDAQ 100	-0.19%	1.26%	0.05%	27.83%	20.19%
Russell 1000	-0.36%	-1.16%	-1.24%	14.37%	9.46%
Russell 2000	0.88%	1.20%	2.91%	20.52%	21.64%
Russell 3000	-0.27%	-0.95%	-0.96%	14.58%	10.01%
ACWI	-0.10%	-0.28%	0.05%	14.63%	12.10%

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Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
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Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

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