Cestia Wealth Management https://cestiawealth.com/ Boutique Services with a Mindful Approach. Mon, 14 Sep 2026 18:42:33 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.1 https://cestiawealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/cropped-Cestia_Icon-Only-Blue-32x32.png Cestia Wealth Management https://cestiawealth.com/ 32 32 Week Ending September 11, 2026 https://cestiawealth.com/week-ending-september-11-2026/ Mon, 14 Sep 2026 18:42:33 +0000 https://cestiawealth.com/?p=6791 Measuring the Value of College in Terms of Earnings Potential The debate over whether a degree pays off is usually argued with anecdotes. This chart measures one side of it directly, showing median annual earnings for full-time workers age 25 and over at each level of education completed. A Look at the Data: Each additional […]

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Measuring the Value of College in Terms of Earnings Potential

The debate over whether a degree pays off is usually argued with anecdotes. This chart measures one side of it directly, showing median annual earnings for full-time workers age 25 and over at each level of education completed.

A Look at the Data: Each additional level of education has historically been associated with higher median earnings, with the largest step coming between a bachelor’s degree or higher and a high school diploma alone. That premium has held across a wide range of labor market conditions.

Planning Implications: The earnings premium for workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher is the largest step higher in this chart. Every situation is different, and that premium has to be measured against the cost of the degree, including tuition, student debt and the income given up while enrolled.

Oil Closes at Highest Level in 4 Months

Wall Street Bets on Rate Hike From a Fed Hemmed In by Persistent Inflation

Retirement Strategies Tax Estimator

Fidelity has some wonderful tools and calculators. See how a Roth IRA conversion, Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs), and taxable/tax-free withdrawals could affect your current or prior-year taxes.

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Following the August CPI and PPI reports, markets have priced in close to a 90% probability of a rate hike from the FOMC this week — what would mark the first change in interest rate policy under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the first tightening move since the Fed last raised rates in July 2023. Perhaps more important than the hike itself will be the accompanying messaging: the FOMC statement, Chair Warsh’s press conference, and the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which extends forecasts through 2029 for inflation, unemployment, growth, and the federal funds rate. Consensus forecasts remain in flux following the inflation data, but most economists expect a steeper rate path through the end of 2026 than was projected in June.

On the data front, August retail sales are expected to rebound from July’s negative headline print (consensus +0.8% MoM versus -0.6% prior), though half or more of that gain may reflect higher gasoline prices; core sales are expected to show more modest growth of 0.4% MoM versus -0.4% in July. The September Philly Fed manufacturing survey offers an early read on business conditions this month, with the headline index expected to retreat to 32.1 after jumping to 47.4 in August — the Prices Paid subcomponent bears watching given the recent run-up in gasoline and diesel prices. Rounding out the week, August industrial production data will show whether the manufacturing strength implied by survey-based leading indicators such as the Philly Fed is beginning to show up in hard data, with manufacturing production expected to grow 0.3% MoM versus 0.2% in the prior month.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

Total Return (1D) Total Return (1W) Total Return (MTD) Total Return (QTD) Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500 -0.56% -1.35% -0.93% 1.53% 11.23%
Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.29% -1.86% -1.44% 0.19% 9.06%
NASDAQ -0.83% -1.48% -0.97% -0.38% 12.36%
NASDAQ 100 -1.25% -1.84% -1.55% -4.22% 14.85%
 Russell 1000  -0.51% -1.36% -0.98% 1.53% 11.83%
 Russell 2000  -0.03% -2.44% -1.74% -3.88% 17.81%
 Russell 3000  -0.50% -1.42% -0.97% 1.29% 12.12%
 ACWI -0.84% -1.84% -1.10% 1.24% 13.04%

Global Client Survey

We’re inviting you to take part in a quick, anonymous client survey. Your feedback helps us fine-tune our process, elevate your experience, and ensure we’re delivering what matters most to you. This isn’t just about checking a box—it’s about shaping the future of how we serve you. Your voice helps guide our next steps. We’re listening. We’re learning. And we’re grateful for your trust.

 

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Disclosures
  1. Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
  2. Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
  3. Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
  4. Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
  5. Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
  6. Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
  7. Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
  8. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

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]]> Week Ending September 4, 2026 https://cestiawealth.com/week-ending-september-4-2026/ Tue, 08 Sep 2026 20:03:20 +0000 https://cestiawealth.com/?p=6781 Openings and Job Seekers Reach Equilibrium This week’s chart places two labor market series side by side: job openings, which measure the positions employers are actively trying to fill, and unemployed persons, meaning individuals in the labor force who are without work and looking for it. Shaded bars mark prior recessions. As of July 2026, […]

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Openings and Job Seekers Reach Equilibrium

This week’s chart places two labor market series side by side: job openings, which measure the positions employers are actively trying to fill, and unemployed persons, meaning individuals in the labor force who are without work and looking for it. Shaded bars mark prior recessions.

As of July 2026, there were 7,271,000 job openings against 7,031,000 unemployed persons — roughly one available position for every person seeking one. Openings rose by 89,000 from a downwardly revised June figure of 7,182,000, coming in modestly below expectations of 7.30 million, a result the Bureau of Labor Statistics characterized as little changed.

The historical context is what gives the current reading its significance. For most of this series’ history, unemployed persons outnumbered available positions, and following the 2008 financial crisis the gap widened to more than two to one. Since 2021, the two lines have converged into near balance — an unusually durable condition by historical standards.

Investment implications: A one-to-one ratio describes a labor market that is neither overheating nor deteriorating, and that balance carries weight in Federal Reserve deliberations, where the openings-to-unemployed ratio remains a closely watched gauge of labor market slack. For investors, equilibrium of this kind supports consumer spending and corporate revenue without generating the wage pressure that complicates the inflation outlook. The figure worth monitoring is not the level but the direction: a sustained decline in openings while the unemployed count holds steady would mark the first genuine loosening in this cycle.

Q4 crypto market outlook

Oil Prices Hit 3-Month Highs

What Issues Should I Consider When Reviewing My Investments?

It is critical to review your investment portfolios as part of the financial planning process. Particularly during times of uncertainty and volatility, a portfolio review can help you evaluate and confirm their strategy, ensuring alignment with their financial goals.

This checklist helps guide your conversations with your advisor when reviewing their investment portfolios, and covers:

  • Investment objectives
  • Time horizon and risk tolerance
  • Diversification and asset allocation
  • Tax management, including capital gains and the NIIT
  • Performance monitoring

Download Our Checklist

September is typically the weakest month of the year for S&P 500 returns, with the index also often experiencing heightened volatility, mostly in the lead-up to a midterm election. This year, September has gotten off to a more resilient start, with the S&P 500 rebounding off support at its 50-day moving average, though NewEdge does not rule out volatility as the month progresses. With second-quarter earnings season now behind the market, potential catalysts for volatility this week could include hotter inflation data (PPI Thursday and CPI Friday), further upward pressure in oil prices, a continued rise in yields, and a shift toward rate hikes from the Fed, with the FOMC meeting next Wednesday.

Despite the potential for near-term volatility, this week’s research looks at how growth fears appear largely absent from the market. The underperformance of utilities alongside the outperformance of banks paints a picture of a market pricing in higher rates without yet viewing those rates as restrictive to growth. As the market enters the final months of 2026, the consumer bears close watching: inflation continues to erode purchasing power, and the tax-reform benefits that helped buffer spending in the second quarter cannot be counted on to offset higher energy spending in the second half of the year.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

Total Return (1D) Total Return (1W) Total Return (MTD) Total Return (QTD) Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500 -0.36% 0.78% 0.06% 2.55% 12.35%
Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.02% 0.19% -0.60% 1.05% 10.00%
NASDAQ -0.28% 1.27% 0.23% 0.83% 13.72%
NASDAQ 100 -0.57% 1.03% -0.27% -2.97% 16.34%
Russell 1000  -0.34% -0.26% 0.05% 2.58% 12.99%
Russell 2000  -0.25% -0.17% 0.45% -1.73% 20.44%
Russell 3000  -0.35% -0.21% 0.10% 2.39% 13.33%
ACWI -0.19% 0.30% 0.56% 2.94% 14.94%

Global Client Survey

We’re inviting you to take part in a quick, anonymous client survey. Your feedback helps us fine-tune our process, elevate your experience, and ensure we’re delivering what matters most to you. This isn’t just about checking a box—it’s about shaping the future of how we serve you. Your voice helps guide our next steps. We’re listening. We’re learning. And we’re grateful for your trust.

 

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Disclosures
  1. Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
  2. Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
  3. Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
  4. Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
  5. Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
  6. Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
  7. Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
  8. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending September 4, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

]]> Week Ending August 28, 2026 https://cestiawealth.com/week-ending-august-28-2026/ Mon, 31 Aug 2026 18:13:47 +0000 https://cestiawealth.com/?p=6766 RECAP: Ignoring Politics When Investing We are now entering Midterm Election territory. And as a primer for what this means for our clients, and for investors in general, we believe it is healthy to review one of our favorite charts regarding Politics and Investing. The data shows that the performance of the S&P 500 does […]

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RECAP: Ignoring Politics When Investing

We are now entering Midterm Election territory. And as a primer for what this means for our clients, and for investors in general, we believe it is healthy to review one of our favorite charts regarding Politics and Investing.

The data shows that the performance of the S&P 500 does not align consistently with political party control. Whether under Democratic or Republican administrations, market growth has occurred in both contexts.

Think Long-Term: While short-term market fluctuations can be influenced by political events or changes, long-term performance tends to smooth out these effects. Investors should focus on their long-term goals rather than reacting to the political climate, as historical data shows that the S&P 500 has experienced growth under both parties over extended periods.

Investing Implications: When zooming out on the long-term growth, historically, of the S&P 500, politics look more like a distraction vs. a signal.

Sticky Inflation Report Raises Jackson Hole Stakes for Fed’s Warsh

Bill Gates warns ‘there is no plan’ for AI transition

Warsh’s “Quiet Fed” Approach Adds a Hawkish Call at Jackson Hole

Trump Announces ‘Biggest Oil Deal in World History’

Q4 crypto market outlook

 

Can you put an IRA in a trust?

Naming a trust as your IRA beneficiary can offer added control—but comes with important tax considerations.

Key Takeaways:

  • An IRA can’t be owned by a trust while you’re alive, but you can name a trust as the IRA beneficiary to direct how assets are managed and distributed after your death.
  • Naming a trust as an IRA beneficiary can create tax and distribution complexities, including potentially accelerated withdrawals and higher tax rates.
  • Because the tax consequences can be significant, it’s important to consult with both an estate-planning attorney and a tax professional before changing your IRA beneficiary designations.

Read the full article from Fidelity here

Markets have a full docket to digest in this last, unofficial week of summer. August nonfarm payrolls arrive Friday, with consensus looking for a roughly 55,000 increase in jobs and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate. The week also brings a slate of manufacturing sentiment and activity data, the Fed’s Beige Book, speeches from Fed officials Waller, Hammack, and Barr, and earnings from semiconductor giant Broadcom (AVGO) — all of which have the potential to move markets already navigating a shifting internal backdrop.

That backdrop has grown more mixed after a strong start to August: the S&P 500 has traded sideways-to-down for the balance of the month, and breadth has faded, with the share of index members above their 50-day moving average slipping from roughly 70% at the end of July to about 53% currently. Even standout results and an outsized revenue guide from Nvidia (NVDA) have not been enough to keep the broader semiconductor complex, or higher-beta, small-cap, and industrial names, trading firmly.

Looking ahead, seasonal patterns have historically brought higher volatility and softer returns to September, and with second-quarter earnings season now behind the market, NewEdge notes the index may become more susceptible to that typical seasonal chop. Resilient economic growth and strong earnings growth have so far allowed the S&P 500 to absorb other headwinds, including a more hawkish Fed and sticky inflation tied to higher commodity prices, but that support may be tested as the calendar turns.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

Total Return (1D) Total Return (1W) Total Return (MTD) Total Return (QTD) Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500 -0.51% 0.26% 2.44% 2.31% 12.08%
Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.71% -0.44% 1.33% 1.65% 10.65%
NASDAQ -0.49% 1.13% 3.54% 0.23% 13.04%
NASDAQ 100 -0.67% 0.73% 3.40% -3.44% 15.78%
Russell 1000  -0.50% -0.15% 2.61% 2.33% 12.71%
Russell 2000  -0.80% -2.19% 0.75% -2.35% 19.68%
Russell 3000  -0.47% -0.24% 2.49% 2.12% 13.04%
ACWI -0.30% -0.13% 2.67% 2.31% 14.24%

Global Client Survey

We’re inviting you to take part in a quick, anonymous client survey. Your feedback helps us fine-tune our process, elevate your experience, and ensure we’re delivering what matters most to you. This isn’t just about checking a box—it’s about shaping the future of how we serve you. Your voice helps guide our next steps. We’re listening. We’re learning. And we’re grateful for your trust.

 

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Disclosures
  1. Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
  2. Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
  3. Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
  4. Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
  5. Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
  6. Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
  7. Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
  8. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending August 28, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

]]> Week Ending August 21, 2026 https://cestiawealth.com/week-ending-august-21-2026/ Mon, 24 Aug 2026 13:11:15 +0000 https://cestiawealth.com/?p=6755 The Interest Burden in Context This week’s chart looks at the federal debt from a different angle than the headline dollar figure. Rather than tracking the total amount owed, it measures federal interest payments as a share of everything the federal government spends — the portion of each budget dollar consumed by servicing past borrowing […]

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The Interest Burden in Context

This week’s chart looks at the federal debt from a different angle than the headline dollar figure. Rather than tracking the total amount owed, it measures federal interest payments as a share of everything the federal government spends — the portion of each budget dollar consumed by servicing past borrowing rather than funding current programs.

By that measure, interest payments currently absorb 16.1% of federal spending, compared with a long-term average of 15.0% dating back to 1947. The debt itself has continued to set records. The interest burden, framed as a share of total spending, has not.

Investment implications: The distinction matters for how investors interpret fiscal headlines. A record debt balance and a record interest burden are not the same claim, and conflating them can lead to portfolio decisions built on the wrong premise. The interest burden reflects both how much is owed and the rate at which it is financed — which is why the level of interest rates, and not the debt balance alone, drives the cost. For long-term investors, the practical takeaway is to keep fiscal developments in proportion: they are a legitimate input to duration and diversification decisions, but a poor basis for wholesale changes to a plan.

 

Bond Market Drives Long-Term Treasury Yields to 19-Year High

Warsh Goes to Wyoming. Will He Bring an Inflation Plan?

Putting a Number on the Cost of Waiting: Capital Gains Tax Deferral Calculator

Few decisions in financial planning generate more hesitation than selling an appreciated holding. A position purchased years ago at a fraction of its current price carries an embedded tax bill, and the instinct to avoid that bill often quietly overrides the question of whether the position still belongs in the portfolio at its current size. Fidelity’s Capital Gains Tax Deferral Calculator is designed to replace that instinct with arithmetic. The tool compares the potential benefits of diversifying a concentrated position on a tax-deferred basis against simply selling the position and reinvesting the after-tax proceeds — which is to say, it puts a number on both sides of a tradeoff that most investors evaluate on feel alone. Fidelity Institutional

Running the calculation matters because the answer is not intuitive, and it changes with the inputs. A large embedded gain, a long remaining time horizon, and a high marginal rate all argue for patience. A holding that has grown to dominate a portfolio, a near-term liquidity need, a coming change in tax bracket, or a heightened concentration risk all argue for acting sooner. Because those factors push in opposite directions, the same holding can warrant opposite conclusions in two different households — and the only way to know which applies is to model it.

The calculator is most useful when it is pointed at a specific question rather than run in the abstract. It can help frame decisions such as: How much of this position can I diversify this year without moving into a higher bracket? If I hold rather than sell, how large does the expected return advantage need to be to justify the concentration risk I am carrying? Does spreading the sale across several tax years produce a materially better result than a single transaction? And how does the calculus shift if the position is intended for heirs or for charitable giving, where the tax treatment may differ entirely?

If you hold a concentrated or highly appreciated position, we would encourage you to raise it at your next review. We can run this analysis alongside your broader plan, so the tax consequence is weighed against your allocation targets, income needs, and estate objectives rather than considered in isolation. Deferral is a legitimate strategy. It is simply not a free one, and the purpose of the calculation is to know what it costs.

 

Check Out the Fidelity Calculator

 

 

 

Markets head into the final week of August with a full macro and earnings docket. Investors will parse July Personal Consumption Expenditures data — covering inflation, spending, and income — for further signals on the disinflation path, while also digesting fiscal second-quarter earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), the S&P 500’s largest constituent, in a report that could meaningfully shape sentiment around the AI trade. Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to deliver his first keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, a speech markets will be parsing closely for policy signals; notably, there is no summer Friday this week, so investors will be positioned for his remarks in real time.

These catalysts converge with seasonal headwinds that have historically weighed on risk assets and with typically lighter late-August trading volumes, a combination that has the potential to amplify volatility across equity, bond, currency, and commodity markets. This week’s research also revisits last week’s Treasury buyback announcement and the resulting volatility in long-dated bonds, alongside what historically strong economic data — such as last week’s Philly Fed manufacturing report — has tended to signal for equity markets going forward.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

Total Return (1D) Total Return (1W) Total Return (MTD) Total Return (QTD) Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500 0.43% -0.91% 2.47% 2.33% 12.11%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.98% -0.34% 1.51% 1.83% 10.85%
NASDAQ 0.43% -1.74% 3.18% -0.13% 12.64%
NASDAQ 100 0.33% -2.29% 3.66% -3.20% 16.08%
Russell 1000  0.43% -1.35% 2.77% 2.49% 12.89%
Russell 2000  0.77% -1.68% 3.01% -0.16% 22.36%
Russell 3000  0.43% -1.36% 2.73% 2.36% 13.31%
ACWI 0.53% -0.91% 2.80% 2.45% 14.39%

Global Client Survey

We’re inviting you to take part in a quick, anonymous client survey. Your feedback helps us fine-tune our process, elevate your experience, and ensure we’re delivering what matters most to you. This isn’t just about checking a box—it’s about shaping the future of how we serve you. Your voice helps guide our next steps. We’re listening. We’re learning. And we’re grateful for your trust.

 

Take Our Survey Now (click here)
Disclosures
  1. Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
  2. Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
  3. Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
  4. Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
  5. Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
  6. Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
  7. Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
  8. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending August 21, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

]]> Week Ending August 14, 2026 https://cestiawealth.com/week-ending-august-14-2026/ Mon, 17 Aug 2026 18:34:29 +0000 https://cestiawealth.com/?p=6740 The Scale of AI Infrastructure The scale of the AI infrastructure buildout becomes easier to appreciate when measured in cash. Rolling consensus estimates for the next twelve months point to approximately $977 billion in capital expenditures across the five largest hyperscalers, set against roughly negative $92 billion in free cash flow — a reminder that […]

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The Scale of AI Infrastructure

The scale of the AI infrastructure buildout becomes easier to appreciate when measured in cash. Rolling consensus estimates for the next twelve months point to approximately $977 billion in capital expenditures across the five largest hyperscalers, set against roughly negative $92 billion in free cash flow — a reminder that capital committed to infrastructure is capital unavailable for dividends, buybacks, debt reduction, or other purposes during the same period. Whether that spending converts into future earnings remains an open question.

The more consequential development for investors may be how it is being financed: as free cash flow turns negative, the buildout shifts from self-funded to dependent on debt and equity markets, introducing sensitivity to credit conditions and investor appetite alongside the underlying business risk. For clients, the practical consideration is not a verdict on these companies but an awareness of concentration. Given the weight these names carry in broad market indices, portfolio exposure to this single spending cycle may be larger than it appears.

The Wisdom of Crowds in Markets: Crowd Behavior in Prediction, Betting, and Stock Markets

The Future is for Everyone:The Path to a Positive AI Future

Claude content will soon get invisible AI watermarks

Sticky Inflation, Job Loss Prolong Fed’s Interest-Rate Limbo

Why Has Oil Not Rallied to $150 or Higher?

What Issues Should I Consider When Harvesting Capital Losses?

Tax-loss harvesting is a popular strategy, but it’s not always clear whether it’s the right strategy for your needs. With our checklist, you will be better prepared to help your clients determine whether harvesting capital losses is appropriate for their financial situation.

This checklist covers some key issues to consider when a client and/or advisor are thinking of implementing a tax-loss harvesting strategy, such as:

  • The effect harvesting losses may have on your overall portfolio goals.
  • Some common pitfalls and rules to be aware of when harvesting losses.
  • The potential tax benefits and consequences that may arise.
  • How long-term goals may be affected by tax-loss harvesting.

Download Our Checklist

 

A light week for economic and market news, with housing and manufacturing data on the docket. Corporate earnings from consumer-facing companies — Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and Target (TGT) — will be watched closely for a read on the health of the consumer.

Major equity indices continue to hover near all-time highs, boosted by a record-breaking earnings season. With investor positioning coming into the rally on the light side, recent strength appears to carry a “positioning chase” component as well. Notably, value-oriented indices (Russell 1000 Value, international developed, Europe, small caps) are trading stronger than their growth-oriented counterparts (Russell 1000 Growth, the Nasdaq, semiconductors, Korea).

In fixed income, last week’s softer inflation and retail sales data pushed short-term yields lower as the odds of an imminent Fed hike receded — yet long-term yields held near recent highs, steepening the curve, a dynamic NewEdge has dubbed the “Zoo Steepener.” This week’s notes include a primer on the yield curve and what drives it at different maturities.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

Total Return (1D) Total Return (1W) Total Return (MTD) Total Return (QTD) Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500 -0.14% 0.28% 3.80% 3.67% 13.57%
Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.29% -0.74% 2.08% 2.40% 11.47%
NASDAQ -0.02% 0.45% 5.32% 1.95% 14.98%
NASDAQ 100 -0.05% 1.38% 6.21% -0.81% 18.94%
Russell 1000  -0.16% 0.31% 4.01% 3.73% 14.25%
Russell 2000  -0.48% 0.69% 4.27% 1.06% 23.86%
Russell 3000  -0.16% 0.34% 3.98% 3.61% 14.69%
ACWI 0.04% 0.56% 3.78% 3.43% 15.49%

Global Client Survey

We’re inviting you to take part in a quick, anonymous client survey. Your feedback helps us fine-tune our process, elevate your experience, and ensure we’re delivering what matters most to you. This isn’t just about checking a box—it’s about shaping the future of how we serve you. Your voice helps guide our next steps. We’re listening. We’re learning. And we’re grateful for your trust.

 

Take Our Survey Now (click here)
Disclosures
  1. Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
  2. Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
  3. Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
  4. Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
  5. Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
  6. Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
  7. Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
  8. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending August 14, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

]]> Week Ending August 7, 2026 https://cestiawealth.com/week-ending-august-7-2026/ Mon, 10 Aug 2026 18:17:29 +0000 https://cestiawealth.com/?p=6726 The Older We Get the Faster Time Goes Why Time Feels Faster: You have probably noticed that a year does not feel as long as it used to. Back in 1877, a French philosopher named Paul Janet suggested a reason. Every year you live gets measured against all the years that came before it, so […]

The post Week Ending August 7, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

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The Older We Get the Faster Time Goes

Why Time Feels Faster: You have probably noticed that a year does not feel as long as it used to. Back in 1877, a French philosopher named Paul Janet suggested a reason. Every year you live gets measured against all the years that came before it, so the pile you are comparing it to keeps growing.

What the Chart Shows: At age 10, one year is a full tenth of everything you have lived. At 50, that same year is only 2%. At 100, it is 1%. The year itself never gets shorter. It just keeps shrinking next to the life behind it.

What It Means for You: This is worth keeping in mind when we talk about the timing of your goals, whether that is travel, family time, or something you have been putting off. Let’s make sure your plan reflects not just what you can afford, but when you will most enjoy it. Any changes we consider will account for longevity, healthcare costs, and what you want to leave behind.

Bond Markets Throw Shade on New Fed Chair’s Inflation Strategy

S&P Hits Record High

Goldman Sacks’ “Balancing Innovation and Inflation in Portfolios”

SpaceX earnings takeaways

Fed Scours Fresh Inflation Data for Interest-Rate Cues as Mid-Term Elections Loom

Am I Impacted By The Social Security Fairness Act?

Navigating the changes brought by the Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 can be complex, but it’s crucial for your financial plan. The repeal of the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset (GPO) may increase your benefits and overall income stream.

To help, we’ve created the “Am I Impacted by the Social Security Fairness Act?” flowchart. It addresses key considerations such as:

  • How benefit increases will be applied
  • Potential planning considerations for spousal or survivor benefits
  • The impact on how one pays for Medicare premiums
  • Considerations for retiring sooner
  • The importance of updating contact information

Download Our Guide

Markets are looking to extend last week’s strength, which saw major indices rally sharply to new highs. The move was driven by a sharp rebound in the Magnificent 7 and the broader tech cohort — yet, notably, these more growth-oriented indices (Mag 7, semiconductors, the Technology sector, Russell 1000 Growth, the Korean KOSPI) remain below their all-time highs, while more value-oriented measures (the equal-weight S&P 500, Russell 1000 Value, MSCI International Developed, STOXX Europe 50) are already back at new highs. That mix is keeping breadth healthy even as some of the index’s largest weights play catch-up.

Monday also brings a wave of upgrades to sell-side S&P 500 price targets, with strength in earnings cited for the bullishness. Second-quarter results have been extraordinary: 88% of companies have beaten estimates — well above average — delivering roughly 50% earnings growth (about 32% adjusting for one-time items at Amazon and Alphabet). Revenue growth has been strong too, running near 15%, boosted by Energy (+43% YoY) and Technology (+36% YoY); even excluding those two sectors, revenues are growing about 9.7% YoY.

On the economic calendar, markets will look to Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI for a catalyst to shift Fed rate-hike expectations. Even after last week’s softer jobs data, the bond market is still pricing a 43% chance of a September hike. Retail sales this week will also offer a read on how consumers are holding up, with prices continuing to rise faster than wages.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

Total Return (1D) Total Return (1W) Total Return (MTD) Total Return (QTD) Total Return (YTD)
S&P  500 0.62% 2.07% 3.58% 3.44% 13.32%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.28% 1.61% 2.96% 3.28% 12.43%
NASDAQ 1.30% 3.00% 5.19% 1.82% 14.84%
NASDAQ 100 1.19% 3.29% 5.12% -1.83% 17.71%
Russell 1000  0.75% 3.69% 3.69% 3.40% 13.89%
Russell 2000  1.11% 3.56% 3.56% 0.37% 23.02%
 Russell 3000  0.76% 3.63% 3.63% 3.26% 14.30%
ACWI 0.84% 3.20% 3.20% 2.85% 14.84%

Global Client Survey

We’re inviting you to take part in a quick, anonymous client survey. Your feedback helps us fine-tune our process, elevate your experience, and ensure we’re delivering what matters most to you. This isn’t just about checking a box—it’s about shaping the future of how we serve you. Your voice helps guide our next steps. We’re listening. We’re learning. And we’re grateful for your trust.

 

Take Our Survey Now (click here)
Disclosures
  1. Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
  2. Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
  3. Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
  4. Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
  5. Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
  6. Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
  7. Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
  8. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending August 7, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

]]> Week Ending July 31, 2026 https://cestiawealth.com/week-ending-july-31-2026/ Mon, 03 Aug 2026 18:53:21 +0000 https://cestiawealth.com/?p=6715 Measuring the 52-Week Drawdown This week’s chart examines the 52-week drawdown — the percentage decline from a stock’s highest price over the trailing year to its most recent price — for a group of well-known household names, set alongside the S&P 500 for context. The individual companies shown currently sit materially further below their 52-week […]

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Measuring the 52-Week Drawdown

This week’s chart examines the 52-week drawdown — the percentage decline from a stock’s highest price over the trailing year to its most recent price — for a group of well-known household names, set alongside the S&P 500 for context.

The individual companies shown currently sit materially further below their 52-week highs than the index itself. That gap illustrates a pattern worth noting: even widely recognized, established businesses can experience deep and prolonged pullbacks, while a broad market index — composed of hundreds of companies — has moved through the same period with far less erosion from its own high.

Investment Implications

The contrast reflects a structural difference, not a coincidence. A diversified index does not depend on the fortunes of any single company; strength in some names can offset weakness in others. Individual securities, by contrast, carry the full weight of their own business results, competitive pressures, and market sentiment. This week’s chart is a reminder that headlines about “the market” and headlines about a specific stock can tell very different stories — and that diversification remains one of the more durable tools for managing that difference over time.

 

Bond Markets Throw Shade on New Fed Chair’s Inflation Strategy

Rule Changes Could Make This Charitable Giving Vehicle Even More Popular

The US has stepped in to buy Japanese yen. Why?

Should you self-fund long-term care?

Most older adults will need some form of long‑term care, but the level, duration, and cost are hard to forecast. Some people who qualify for insurance may opt to self-fund, while others may benefit from a blended approach using both insurance and savings. If you’re considering self-funding, it’s important to assess which assets are available and liquid, tax implications, and how that plan may align with inheritance goals.

Download Fidelity’s Self-funding long-term care  article

The equity market’s resilience over the past two months has been notable. Despite acute weakness in some of the index’s largest names (including the Magnificent 7), a leverage unwind in the year’s most popular trade — semiconductors and AI infrastructure — a shift toward both greater Fed hawkishness and Fed uncertainty that has lifted yields across the curve, and continued Middle East tensions, the S&P 500 has shown remarkably little volatility. At its maximum drawdown the index was down only about 4% from its highs — too shallow to qualify as a correction or even a pullback, which NewEdge has characterized as a “wobble.” The index is now rebounding robustly, propelled by the Magnificent 7, a cohort that had lagged year-to-date and seen its group valuation fall by roughly a third over the past nine months. Given the Mag 7’s weight in the index (over 30%), outsized moves in these names carry outsized impact on returns.

This week brings another wave of earnings alongside key labor data, with nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Consensus looks for 80k jobs added and a stable 4.2% unemployment rate — a print that will shape expectations for Fed action at the September meeting, where the market currently prices a 63% probability of a hike. The move higher in long-term yields following last week’s meeting — including a push to new highs in the 30-Year TIPS yield — speaks to the bond market’s growing unease about a potentially complacent Fed, sticky inflation, and heavy debt supply from both public and private issuers

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

Total Return (1D) Total Return (1W) Total Return (MTD) Total Return (QTD) Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500 0.70% 1.03% 0.00% -0.13% 9.41%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.53% 0.53% 0.00% 0.32% 9.20%
NASDAQ 1.00% 1.77% 0.00% -3.20% 9.17%
NASDAQ 100 0.60% 0.84% 0.00% -6.61% 11.98%
Russell 1000  0.64% 1.04% -0.27% -0.27% 9.84%
Russell 2000  -0.48% 0.01% -3.08% -3.08% 18.79%
Russell 3000  0.58% 1.00% -0.36% -0.36% 10.30%
ACWI 0.49% 1.38% -0.34% -0.34% 11.28%

Global Client Survey

We’re inviting you to take part in a quick, anonymous client survey. Your feedback helps us fine-tune our process, elevate your experience, and ensure we’re delivering what matters most to you. This isn’t just about checking a box—it’s about shaping the future of how we serve you. Your voice helps guide our next steps. We’re listening. We’re learning. And we’re grateful for your trust.

 

Take Our Survey Now (click here)
Disclosures
  1. Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
  2. Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
  3. Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
  4. Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
  5. Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
  6. Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
  7. Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
  8. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending July 31, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

]]> Week Ending July 24, 2026 https://cestiawealth.com/week-ending-july-24-2026/ Wed, 29 Jul 2026 16:36:07 +0000 https://cestiawealth.com/?p=6704 When Headlines Get Loud, Discipline Gets Rewarded Markets have had a turbulent stretch. U.S. stocks fell for the week amid renewed Middle East tensions, with military strikes resuming and the administration threatening to reinstate a surcharge on cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Technology led the decline, off roughly 4% on the week, and […]

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When Headlines Get Loud, Discipline Gets Rewarded

Markets have had a turbulent stretch. U.S. stocks fell for the week amid renewed Middle East tensions, with military strikes resuming and the administration threatening to reinstate a surcharge on cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Technology led the decline, off roughly 4% on the week, and semiconductor stocks have corrected more than 20% from their June 22 peak, even as year-to-date gains in the group remain substantial. The S&P 500 itself closed down about 1% on July 17, settling at 7,457.69.

It would be easy to read a week like this as a signal to step to the sidelines. The data says otherwise. Despite the noise, the S&P 500 has still added roughly 9% year to date, building on a return of 9.7% since January 1, 2026 — resilience that’s notable given headwinds including trade-policy uncertainty and elevated oil prices tied to the Iran conflict.

This is precisely the pattern the accompanying J.P. Morgan chart illustrates. A hypothetical $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 and left fully invested grew to roughly $75,000 over the period studied, a 10.60% annualized return. Missing just the 10 best trading days cut that return nearly in half, to 6.37%. Missing 20 or 30 of the best days reduced it further still, to 3.69% and 1.53%, respectively. The reason this matters isn’t abstract: seven of the ten best days on record occurred within 15 days of the ten worst days. The rebound and the selloff tend to travel together — which is exactly what a portfolio in cash risks missing.

The lesson for weeks like this one isn’t to ignore volatility. It’s to recognize that reacting to it is often more costly than sitting through it. Staying invested — not attempting to time the reentry — has historically been the strategy that captured the recovery.

 

After the Reset: Time to Focus on Fundamentals

4 Big Questions About the Economy

Oil Rockets Towards $100

Saudi Nuclear Deal Confusion Threatens Billions in Potential US Manufacturing Sales

Mounting US Budget Deficit Complicates Fed’s Interest Rate Choices

Common Savings Accounts for Children

Many parents want to start setting money aside for their children, but they’re often unsure about where they should actually save the money.

There are several options available. Some accounts remain in the parents’ names and can be gifted later, offering flexibility. Others involve irrevocable gifts that permanently belong to the child. Some strategies provide tax advantages, while others prioritize control or simplicity.

To help support these conversations, We’ve put together this guide that walks through several common ways parents save for children, highlighting the pros and cons of each option and why someone might consider one strategy over another.

  1. Understand common savings options for children
  2. Compare flexibility vs. tax benefits
  3. Recognize when a strategy involves irrevocable gifting
  4. Start thoughtful conversations about family planning goals

Download Our Guide

 

Markets opened the week with a relief rally after a soft finish to last week, when stocks came under pressure following a poor reception to Alphabet’s (GOOG/GOOGL) earnings. Investors soured on heavy capital-expenditure plans that pushed free cash flow negative for the quarter — the company spent more on capex than it generated in operating cash flow. That capex debate will be tested further this week as hyperscalers Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) all report earnings.

A full one-third of the S&P 500 reports earnings this week. Second-quarter earnings season has been notably strong, with growth tracking at an eye-popping 37.9% — though that figure is skewed higher by a large one-time gain at Alphabet; excluding it, growth would be a still-robust 25.9%.

The Fed also delivers its July rate decision this week. As of Monday, the market is pricing a 34% probability of a hike — a notably high and ambiguous reading this close to the meeting date. The week’s most important economic data — Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation, spending, and income — will be released after the Fed’s decision.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

Total Return (1D) Total Return (1W) Total Return (MTD) Total Return (QTD) Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500 -1.13% -2.05% -2.06% -2.06% 7.30%
Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.75% -0.75% -0.94% -0.94% 7.83%
NASDAQ -1.46% -4.59% -6.49% -6.49% 5.47%
NASDAQ 100 -1.75% -5.94% -9.91% -9.91% 8.03%
iShares Russell 1000 ETF -1.21% -1.96% -2.15% -2.15% 7.78%
iShares Russell 2000 ETF -1.63% -1.77% -3.95% -3.95% 17.72%
iShares Russell 3000 ETF -1.19% -2.13% -2.22% -2.22% 8.24%
iShares ACWI ETF -1.24% -2.35% -2.77% -2.77% 8.57%

Global Client Survey

We’re inviting you to take part in a quick, anonymous client survey. Your feedback helps us fine-tune our process, elevate your experience, and ensure we’re delivering what matters most to you. This isn’t just about checking a box—it’s about shaping the future of how we serve you. Your voice helps guide our next steps. We’re listening. We’re learning. And we’re grateful for your trust.

 

Take Our Survey Now (click here)
Disclosures
  1. Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
  2. Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
  3. Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
  4. Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
  5. Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
  6. Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
  7. Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
  8. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending July 24, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

]]> Week Ending July 17, 2026 https://cestiawealth.com/week-ending-july-17-2026/ Mon, 20 Jul 2026 18:13:14 +0000 https://cestiawealth.com/?p=6695 Tracking Earnings Revisions This chart illustrates how Wall Street’s bottom-up consensus estimate for S&P 500 earnings per share has evolved across three upcoming quarters. Each line traces the path of analyst expectations for a given quarter as new information comes to light. Consensus EPS estimates currently stand at $82.62 for Q2 2026, $88.68 for Q3 […]

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Tracking Earnings Revisions

This chart illustrates how Wall Street’s bottom-up consensus estimate for S&P 500 earnings per share has evolved across three upcoming quarters. Each line traces the path of analyst expectations for a given quarter as new information comes to light. Consensus EPS estimates currently stand at $82.62 for Q2 2026, $88.68 for Q3 2026, and $91.81 for Q4 2026. Each line reflects how expectations for that quarter have shifted since the start of the year.

The direction of earnings revisions has long served as a useful gauge of corporate fundamentals — rising estimates typically reflect improving profit expectations, while declining estimates often signal growing caution among analysts. As always, estimates are subject to change and are not a guarantee of future earnings.

Fed’s Warsh Promises Congress a Hard Line on Inflation Amid Looming Risks

Wall Street Takes In Record Haul, Projecting US Economic Health

The House passed a bill to make daylight saving time permanent

Battered Energy Markets Brace for Second Wartime Disruption

Understanding Trump Accounts

Established under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and officially launched on July 4, 2026, Trump Accounts represent a new category of tax-advantaged savings vehicle for American children. Structured as a form of traditional IRA under IRC §530A, these accounts are designed to give the next generation an early foothold in long-term investing.

Key features clients should know:

  • Eligibility: Any U.S. child under age 18 with a Social Security number qualifies. The account is held in the child’s name, with a parent or guardian serving as custodian until age 18.
  • Seed funding: Children born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028, may qualify for a one-time $1,000 federal contribution under a pilot program.
  • Contribution limits: Up to $5,000 per year may be contributed with after-tax dollars, growing tax-deferred. Employers, charitable organizations, and government entities may also contribute on a child’s behalf.
  • Investment structure: During childhood, holdings are restricted to low-cost U.S. equity index funds or ETFs, with fees capped by law.
  • At age 18: The account converts automatically into a traditional IRA, allowing the funds to continue growing for retirement, education, entrepreneurship, or a first home purchase.
  • Administration: Accounts are initially managed by BNY, in partnership with Robinhood, though they can be rolled over to another financial institution.

A note on planning implications: For families already funding 529 plans or custodial accounts, a Trump Account adds another tool to the estate and education-planning toolkit. Because contribution limits, investment restrictions, and beneficiary rules differ from other vehicles, we recommend clients speak with their advisor before deciding how a Trump Account fits alongside existing savings strategies.

For clients who want to learn more or begin the enrollment process, the official source for eligibility, enrollment, and account details is TrumpAccounts.gov.

 

Equities

  • U.S. equity markets declined for the week as a selloff in semiconductor and AI-related names outweighed encouraging inflation data, firm energy prices, and a strong start to Q2 earnings season.
  • Early earnings results have been favorable: 88% of reporting S&P 500 companies have beaten EPS estimates, with blended earnings growth of 24.7%, reflecting profit strength beyond the “Magnificent Seven.”
  • The S&P 500 fell 1.55%, while the Nasdaq declined more sharply as growth stocks underperformed value; the Russell 2000 held up relatively well, losing just 0.51%.
  • Energy led sector performance (+4.99%) as oil climbed to $82.49 per barrel amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, while information technology (-3.78%) and communication services (-2.38%) lagged.
  • Developed international markets fell 0.81%, outperforming U.S. large caps, while emerging markets declined 4.10%.

Bonds

  • Fixed income markets posted modest gains as cooler-than-expected inflation data supported Treasuries, even against a backdrop of renewed geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.55% and the 2-year yield rose to 4.18%, widening the 2-10 year spread to 0.37%.
  • Short- and intermediate-duration government and investment-grade bonds posted small gains, while longer-duration issues remained pressured by higher yields.
  • High-yield bonds were little changed, reflecting resilient credit fundamentals despite broader market volatility.

Macroeconomic Data

  • June CPI came in below expectations, with headline inflation falling 0.4% month-over-month — the largest monthly decline since 2020 — bringing the year-over-year rate down to 3.5% as lower energy prices offset continued strength in shelter and services.
  • Producer prices also eased, reinforcing signs that inflation pressure is moderating.
  • Consumer spending remained resilient: June retail sales rose 0.2%, with core retail sales up a stronger 0.5%, supported by solid auto and online purchases.
  • The labor market showed little sign of deterioration, with initial jobless claims falling to 208,000.
  • Industrial production increased modestly, and consumer sentiment improved, suggesting household confidence remains steady despite geopolitical uncertainty and elevated oil prices.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

Total Return

(1D)

 Total Return (1W) Total Return (MTD) Total Return (QTD) Total Return (YTD) Total Return (2025)
S&P 500 -1.01% -0.77% -0.56% -0.56% 8.94% 16.39%
Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.77% -0.67% -0.33% -0.33% 8.50% 12.97%
NASDAQ -1.40% -1.36% -2.65% -2.65% 9.80% 20.36%
NASDAQ 100 -1.49% -2.29% -5.56% -5.56% 13.24% 20.17%
Russell 1000 -1.02% -1.55% -0.68% -0.68% 9.39% 17.18%
Russell 2000 -0.52% -0.66% -2.13% -2.13% 19.95% 12.66%
Russell 3000 ETF -0.97% -1.43% -0.70% -0.70% 9.92% 16.96%
ACWI (International All Country World Index) -0.87% -1.70% -1.26% -1.26% 10.26% 22.41%

Global Client Survey

We’re inviting you to take part in a quick, anonymous client survey. Your feedback helps us fine-tune our process, elevate your experience, and ensure we’re delivering what matters most to you. This isn’t just about checking a box—it’s about shaping the future of how we serve you. Your voice helps guide our next steps. We’re listening. We’re learning. And we’re grateful for your trust.

 

Take Our Survey Now (click here)
Disclosures
  1. Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
  2. Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
  3. Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
  4. Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
  5. Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
  6. Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
  7. Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
  8. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending July 17, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

]]> Week Ending July 10, 2026 https://cestiawealth.com/week-ending-july-10-2026/ Mon, 13 Jul 2026 18:16:57 +0000 https://cestiawealth.com/?p=6686 Hot Topic: What Nvidia’s Valuation Multiple Is Really Telling Us Nvidia’s forward price-to-earnings ratio — a measure comparing its share price to expected earnings over the next twelve months — currently stands at 19.9x. That’s near the low end of its range since 2019, and a steep drop from the roughly 65x peak reached in […]

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Hot Topic: What Nvidia’s Valuation Multiple Is Really Telling Us

Nvidia’s forward price-to-earnings ratio — a measure comparing its share price to expected earnings over the next twelve months — currently stands at 19.9x. That’s near the low end of its range since 2019, and a steep drop from the roughly 65x peak reached in late 2021.

The key detail: this decline hasn’t come from a falling stock price. Nvidia shares have continued to climb. Instead, earnings estimates have grown even faster than the share price, which has steadily compressed the multiple over time.

A shrinking valuation multiple alongside a rising stock price has historically pointed to earnings growth outpacing price appreciation — not speculative excess. For clients who are uneasy about AI-related valuations, this is a useful data point for shifting the conversation from headlines back to fundamentals.

 

Oil Market is Attempting a System Reboot

Bank Earnings Bonanza Offers Top-to-Bottom Review of US Economy

Oil Jumps After Battle for Hormuz Control Escalates

Why Risk Tolerance and Risk Capacity Aren’t the Same Thing

When we build an investment strategy, two questions matter: how much risk are you willing to take, and how much risk can you afford to take. These sound similar, but they’re distinct — and treating them as one number can lead to the wrong portfolio.

Risk tolerance is about temperament — your comfort with market swings and your ability to stay invested through a downturn without losing sleep or abandoning the plan.

Risk capacity is about circumstance — your time horizon, income needs, and financial resources, which determine whether your goals could withstand a market setback.

Many traditional questionnaires blend these into a single score, which can create mismatches. A client with substantial assets and decades until retirement might score as having high capacity for risk — but if that same client has genuinely low tolerance for volatility, a blended score can still steer them toward a portfolio they can’t emotionally sustain through a downturn. The reverse is also true: a client eager to take on risk but with limited savings and near-term cash needs could be pushed into a portfolio their situation simply can’t support.

Our approach: rather than averaging tolerance and capacity together, we evaluate them separately. Each one acts as a check on the other — low tolerance or low capacity serves as a constraint on the portfolio we recommend, rather than being offset by a stronger score elsewhere. For clients with a comprehensive financial plan, the plan’s own projections (including probability-of-success modeling) offer a direct read on risk capacity, which we pair with a separate conversation about comfort and attitudes toward market risk.

The client benefit: a portfolio that reflects both what you can afford and what you’re comfortable with — not just a number that averages the two and quietly overlooks the more limiting one.

SOURCE: Kitces.com

 

Equities

  • U.S. equity markets posted mixed but resilient results this week, as renewed geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran drove volatility across oil prices, Treasury yields, and semiconductor stocks.
  • The S&P 500 rose 1.26% and the Nasdaq advanced 1.74%, with growth outpacing value amid continued enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.
  • Large-cap companies outperformed small- and mid-cap peers, as economically sensitive segments underperformed due to rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty weighing on industrial and value-oriented names.
  • Information Technology led all sectors (+3.4%), while Materials, Health Care, and Industrials lagged.
  • Energy rebounded meaningfully as oil prices recovered much of their recent decline.
  • International markets underperformed U.S. large caps, with developed markets down 1.37% and emerging markets down 1.74%.

Bonds

  • Fixed income markets declined as Treasury yields rose meaningfully, driven by renewed geopolitical tensions and related inflation concerns.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.56%, while the 2-year yield rose seven basis points to 4.21%, holding the 2–10 year spread steady at 0.35%.
  • Longer-duration bonds bore the brunt of the move, with long-term investment-grade corporates down 1.3% and long-term government bonds down over 1.0%.
  • High-yield bonds were the relative bright spot, with short- and intermediate-duration issues gaining 0.4% as improving risk sentiment and tighter credit spreads helped offset rising yields.

Macroeconomic Data

  • Economic data was limited this week as markets focused on the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes.
  • ISM Services PMI eased slightly to 54.0 in June from 54.5 in May, in line with expectations and marking 24 consecutive months of expansion; employment improved, though new orders and business activity softened.
  • Existing home sales fell 2.4% in June to an annualized rate of 4.09 million, as elevated prices and mortgage rates continued to pressure affordability.
  • The Fed held interest rates steady at its June meeting, with unanimous support, though a few members had initially considered a hike.
  • Looking ahead, the committee remains divided: one group anticipates rates holding flat or declining, while another expects further increases may be necessary before year-end.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

Total Return

(1D)

 Total Return

(1W)

 Total Return (MTD) Total Return (QTD) Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500 0.42% 0.50% 1.01% 1.01% 10.66%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.29% -0.79% 0.61% 0.61% 9.52%
NASDAQ 0.29% 0.61% 0.26% 0.26% 13.08%
NASDAQ 100 0.33% 0.43% -1.49% -1.49% 18.12%
Russell 1000  0.36% 1.07% 0.88% 0.88% 11.12%
Russell 2000  -0.42% -0.53% -1.48% -1.48% 20.74%
Russell 3000  0.27% 1.01% 0.74% 0.74% 11.52%
ACWI 0.42% 0.98% 0.45% 0.45% 12.17%

Global Client Survey

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Disclosures
  1. Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
  2. Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
  3. Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
  4. Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
  5. Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
  6. Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
  7. Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
  8. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

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