Cestia Wealth Management

Week Ending July 31, 2026

Jason Foster — Mon, 03 Aug 2026 18:53:21 +0000

Measuring the 52-Week Drawdown

This week’s chart examines the 52-week drawdown — the percentage decline from a stock’s highest price over the trailing year to its most recent price — for a group of well-known household names, set alongside the S&P 500 for context.

The individual companies shown currently sit materially further below their 52-week highs than the index itself. That gap illustrates a pattern worth noting: even widely recognized, established businesses can experience deep and prolonged pullbacks, while a broad market index — composed of hundreds of companies — has moved through the same period with far less erosion from its own high.

Investment Implications

The contrast reflects a structural difference, not a coincidence. A diversified index does not depend on the fortunes of any single company; strength in some names can offset weakness in others. Individual securities, by contrast, carry the full weight of their own business results, competitive pressures, and market sentiment. This week’s chart is a reminder that headlines about “the market” and headlines about a specific stock can tell very different stories — and that diversification remains one of the more durable tools for managing that difference over time.

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Should you self-fund long-term care?

Most older adults will need some form of long‑term care, but the level, duration, and cost are hard to forecast. Some people who qualify for insurance may opt to self-fund, while others may benefit from a blended approach using both insurance and savings. If you’re considering self-funding, it’s important to assess which assets are available and liquid, tax implications, and how that plan may align with inheritance goals.

Download Fidelity’s Self-funding long-term care article

The equity market’s resilience over the past two months has been notable. Despite acute weakness in some of the index’s largest names (including the Magnificent 7), a leverage unwind in the year’s most popular trade — semiconductors and AI infrastructure — a shift toward both greater Fed hawkishness and Fed uncertainty that has lifted yields across the curve, and continued Middle East tensions, the S&P 500 has shown remarkably little volatility. At its maximum drawdown the index was down only about 4% from its highs — too shallow to qualify as a correction or even a pullback, which NewEdge has characterized as a “wobble.” The index is now rebounding robustly, propelled by the Magnificent 7, a cohort that had lagged year-to-date and seen its group valuation fall by roughly a third over the past nine months. Given the Mag 7’s weight in the index (over 30%), outsized moves in these names carry outsized impact on returns.

This week brings another wave of earnings alongside key labor data, with nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Consensus looks for 80k jobs added and a stable 4.2% unemployment rate — a print that will shape expectations for Fed action at the September meeting, where the market currently prices a 63% probability of a hike. The move higher in long-term yields following last week’s meeting — including a push to new highs in the 30-Year TIPS yield — speaks to the bond market’s growing unease about a potentially complacent Fed, sticky inflation, and heavy debt supply from both public and private issuers

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	0.70%	1.03%	0.00%	-0.13%	9.41%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	0.53%	0.53%	0.00%	0.32%	9.20%
NASDAQ	1.00%	1.77%	0.00%	-3.20%	9.17%
NASDAQ 100	0.60%	0.84%	0.00%	-6.61%	11.98%
Russell 1000	0.64%	1.04%	-0.27%	-0.27%	9.84%
Russell 2000	-0.48%	0.01%	-3.08%	-3.08%	18.79%
Russell 3000	0.58%	1.00%	-0.36%	-0.36%	10.30%
ACWI	0.49%	1.38%	-0.34%	-0.34%	11.28%

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending July 31, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending July 24, 2026

Jason Foster — Wed, 29 Jul 2026 16:36:07 +0000

When Headlines Get Loud, Discipline Gets Rewarded

Markets have had a turbulent stretch. U.S. stocks fell for the week amid renewed Middle East tensions, with military strikes resuming and the administration threatening to reinstate a surcharge on cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Technology led the decline, off roughly 4% on the week, and semiconductor stocks have corrected more than 20% from their June 22 peak, even as year-to-date gains in the group remain substantial. The S&P 500 itself closed down about 1% on July 17, settling at 7,457.69.

It would be easy to read a week like this as a signal to step to the sidelines. The data says otherwise. Despite the noise, the S&P 500 has still added roughly 9% year to date, building on a return of 9.7% since January 1, 2026 — resilience that’s notable given headwinds including trade-policy uncertainty and elevated oil prices tied to the Iran conflict.

This is precisely the pattern the accompanying J.P. Morgan chart illustrates. A hypothetical $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 and left fully invested grew to roughly $75,000 over the period studied, a 10.60% annualized return. Missing just the 10 best trading days cut that return nearly in half, to 6.37%. Missing 20 or 30 of the best days reduced it further still, to 3.69% and 1.53%, respectively. The reason this matters isn’t abstract: seven of the ten best days on record occurred within 15 days of the ten worst days. The rebound and the selloff tend to travel together — which is exactly what a portfolio in cash risks missing.

The lesson for weeks like this one isn’t to ignore volatility. It’s to recognize that reacting to it is often more costly than sitting through it. Staying invested — not attempting to time the reentry — has historically been the strategy that captured the recovery.

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Common Savings Accounts for Children

Many parents want to start setting money aside for their children, but they’re often unsure about where they should actually save the money.

There are several options available. Some accounts remain in the parents’ names and can be gifted later, offering flexibility. Others involve irrevocable gifts that permanently belong to the child. Some strategies provide tax advantages, while others prioritize control or simplicity.

To help support these conversations, We’ve put together this guide that walks through several common ways parents save for children, highlighting the pros and cons of each option and why someone might consider one strategy over another.

Understand common savings options for children
Compare flexibility vs. tax benefits
Recognize when a strategy involves irrevocable gifting
Start thoughtful conversations about family planning goals

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Markets opened the week with a relief rally after a soft finish to last week, when stocks came under pressure following a poor reception to Alphabet’s (GOOG/GOOGL) earnings. Investors soured on heavy capital-expenditure plans that pushed free cash flow negative for the quarter — the company spent more on capex than it generated in operating cash flow. That capex debate will be tested further this week as hyperscalers Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) all report earnings.

A full one-third of the S&P 500 reports earnings this week. Second-quarter earnings season has been notably strong, with growth tracking at an eye-popping 37.9% — though that figure is skewed higher by a large one-time gain at Alphabet; excluding it, growth would be a still-robust 25.9%.

The Fed also delivers its July rate decision this week. As of Monday, the market is pricing a 34% probability of a hike — a notably high and ambiguous reading this close to the meeting date. The week’s most important economic data — Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation, spending, and income — will be released after the Fed’s decision.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	-1.13%	-2.05%	-2.06%	-2.06%	7.30%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-1.75%	-0.75%	-0.94%	-0.94%	7.83%
NASDAQ	-1.46%	-4.59%	-6.49%	-6.49%	5.47%
NASDAQ 100	-1.75%	-5.94%	-9.91%	-9.91%	8.03%
iShares Russell 1000 ETF	-1.21%	-1.96%	-2.15%	-2.15%	7.78%
iShares Russell 2000 ETF	-1.63%	-1.77%	-3.95%	-3.95%	17.72%
iShares Russell 3000 ETF	-1.19%	-2.13%	-2.22%	-2.22%	8.24%
iShares ACWI ETF	-1.24%	-2.35%	-2.77%	-2.77%	8.57%

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending July 24, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending July 17, 2026

Jason Foster — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 18:13:14 +0000

Tracking Earnings Revisions

This chart illustrates how Wall Street’s bottom-up consensus estimate for S&P 500 earnings per share has evolved across three upcoming quarters. Each line traces the path of analyst expectations for a given quarter as new information comes to light. Consensus EPS estimates currently stand at $82.62 for Q2 2026, $88.68 for Q3 2026, and $91.81 for Q4 2026. Each line reflects how expectations for that quarter have shifted since the start of the year.

The direction of earnings revisions has long served as a useful gauge of corporate fundamentals — rising estimates typically reflect improving profit expectations, while declining estimates often signal growing caution among analysts. As always, estimates are subject to change and are not a guarantee of future earnings.

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Understanding Trump Accounts

Established under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and officially launched on July 4, 2026, Trump Accounts represent a new category of tax-advantaged savings vehicle for American children. Structured as a form of traditional IRA under IRC §530A, these accounts are designed to give the next generation an early foothold in long-term investing.

Key features clients should know:

Eligibility: Any U.S. child under age 18 with a Social Security number qualifies. The account is held in the child’s name, with a parent or guardian serving as custodian until age 18.
Seed funding: Children born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028, may qualify for a one-time $1,000 federal contribution under a pilot program.
Contribution limits: Up to $5,000 per year may be contributed with after-tax dollars, growing tax-deferred. Employers, charitable organizations, and government entities may also contribute on a child’s behalf.
Investment structure: During childhood, holdings are restricted to low-cost U.S. equity index funds or ETFs, with fees capped by law.
At age 18: The account converts automatically into a traditional IRA, allowing the funds to continue growing for retirement, education, entrepreneurship, or a first home purchase.
Administration: Accounts are initially managed by BNY, in partnership with Robinhood, though they can be rolled over to another financial institution.

A note on planning implications: For families already funding 529 plans or custodial accounts, a Trump Account adds another tool to the estate and education-planning toolkit. Because contribution limits, investment restrictions, and beneficiary rules differ from other vehicles, we recommend clients speak with their advisor before deciding how a Trump Account fits alongside existing savings strategies.

For clients who want to learn more or begin the enrollment process, the official source for eligibility, enrollment, and account details is TrumpAccounts.gov.

Equities

U.S. equity markets declined for the week as a selloff in semiconductor and AI-related names outweighed encouraging inflation data, firm energy prices, and a strong start to Q2 earnings season.
Early earnings results have been favorable: 88% of reporting S&P 500 companies have beaten EPS estimates, with blended earnings growth of 24.7%, reflecting profit strength beyond the “Magnificent Seven.”
The S&P 500 fell 1.55%, while the Nasdaq declined more sharply as growth stocks underperformed value; the Russell 2000 held up relatively well, losing just 0.51%.
Energy led sector performance (+4.99%) as oil climbed to $82.49 per barrel amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, while information technology (-3.78%) and communication services (-2.38%) lagged.
Developed international markets fell 0.81%, outperforming U.S. large caps, while emerging markets declined 4.10%.

Bonds

Fixed income markets posted modest gains as cooler-than-expected inflation data supported Treasuries, even against a backdrop of renewed geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.55% and the 2-year yield rose to 4.18%, widening the 2-10 year spread to 0.37%.
Short- and intermediate-duration government and investment-grade bonds posted small gains, while longer-duration issues remained pressured by higher yields.
High-yield bonds were little changed, reflecting resilient credit fundamentals despite broader market volatility.

Macroeconomic Data

June CPI came in below expectations, with headline inflation falling 0.4% month-over-month — the largest monthly decline since 2020 — bringing the year-over-year rate down to 3.5% as lower energy prices offset continued strength in shelter and services.
Producer prices also eased, reinforcing signs that inflation pressure is moderating.
Consumer spending remained resilient: June retail sales rose 0.2%, with core retail sales up a stronger 0.5%, supported by solid auto and online purchases.
The labor market showed little sign of deterioration, with initial jobless claims falling to 208,000.
Industrial production increased modestly, and consumer sentiment improved, suggesting household confidence remains steady despite geopolitical uncertainty and elevated oil prices.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)	Total Return (2025)
S&P 500	-1.01%	-0.77%	-0.56%	-0.56%	8.94%	16.39%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-0.77%	-0.67%	-0.33%	-0.33%	8.50%	12.97%
NASDAQ	-1.40%	-1.36%	-2.65%	-2.65%	9.80%	20.36%
NASDAQ 100	-1.49%	-2.29%	-5.56%	-5.56%	13.24%	20.17%
Russell 1000	-1.02%	-1.55%	-0.68%	-0.68%	9.39%	17.18%
Russell 2000	-0.52%	-0.66%	-2.13%	-2.13%	19.95%	12.66%
Russell 3000 ETF	-0.97%	-1.43%	-0.70%	-0.70%	9.92%	16.96%
ACWI (International All Country World Index)	-0.87%	-1.70%	-1.26%	-1.26%	10.26%	22.41%

Global Client Survey

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending July 17, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending July 10, 2026

Jason Foster — Mon, 13 Jul 2026 18:16:57 +0000

Hot Topic: What Nvidia’s Valuation Multiple Is Really Telling Us

Nvidia’s forward price-to-earnings ratio — a measure comparing its share price to expected earnings over the next twelve months — currently stands at 19.9x. That’s near the low end of its range since 2019, and a steep drop from the roughly 65x peak reached in late 2021.

The key detail: this decline hasn’t come from a falling stock price. Nvidia shares have continued to climb. Instead, earnings estimates have grown even faster than the share price, which has steadily compressed the multiple over time.

A shrinking valuation multiple alongside a rising stock price has historically pointed to earnings growth outpacing price appreciation — not speculative excess. For clients who are uneasy about AI-related valuations, this is a useful data point for shifting the conversation from headlines back to fundamentals.

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Why Risk Tolerance and Risk Capacity Aren’t the Same Thing

When we build an investment strategy, two questions matter: how much risk are you willing to take, and how much risk can you afford to take. These sound similar, but they’re distinct — and treating them as one number can lead to the wrong portfolio.

Risk tolerance is about temperament — your comfort with market swings and your ability to stay invested through a downturn without losing sleep or abandoning the plan.

Risk capacity is about circumstance — your time horizon, income needs, and financial resources, which determine whether your goals could withstand a market setback.

Many traditional questionnaires blend these into a single score, which can create mismatches. A client with substantial assets and decades until retirement might score as having high capacity for risk — but if that same client has genuinely low tolerance for volatility, a blended score can still steer them toward a portfolio they can’t emotionally sustain through a downturn. The reverse is also true: a client eager to take on risk but with limited savings and near-term cash needs could be pushed into a portfolio their situation simply can’t support.

Our approach: rather than averaging tolerance and capacity together, we evaluate them separately. Each one acts as a check on the other — low tolerance or low capacity serves as a constraint on the portfolio we recommend, rather than being offset by a stronger score elsewhere. For clients with a comprehensive financial plan, the plan’s own projections (including probability-of-success modeling) offer a direct read on risk capacity, which we pair with a separate conversation about comfort and attitudes toward market risk.

The client benefit: a portfolio that reflects both what you can afford and what you’re comfortable with — not just a number that averages the two and quietly overlooks the more limiting one.

SOURCE: Kitces.com

Equities

U.S. equity markets posted mixed but resilient results this week, as renewed geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran drove volatility across oil prices, Treasury yields, and semiconductor stocks.
The S&P 500 rose 1.26% and the Nasdaq advanced 1.74%, with growth outpacing value amid continued enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.
Large-cap companies outperformed small- and mid-cap peers, as economically sensitive segments underperformed due to rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty weighing on industrial and value-oriented names.
Information Technology led all sectors (+3.4%), while Materials, Health Care, and Industrials lagged.
Energy rebounded meaningfully as oil prices recovered much of their recent decline.
International markets underperformed U.S. large caps, with developed markets down 1.37% and emerging markets down 1.74%.

Bonds

Fixed income markets declined as Treasury yields rose meaningfully, driven by renewed geopolitical tensions and related inflation concerns.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.56%, while the 2-year yield rose seven basis points to 4.21%, holding the 2–10 year spread steady at 0.35%.
Longer-duration bonds bore the brunt of the move, with long-term investment-grade corporates down 1.3% and long-term government bonds down over 1.0%.
High-yield bonds were the relative bright spot, with short- and intermediate-duration issues gaining 0.4% as improving risk sentiment and tighter credit spreads helped offset rising yields.

Macroeconomic Data

Economic data was limited this week as markets focused on the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes.
ISM Services PMI eased slightly to 54.0 in June from 54.5 in May, in line with expectations and marking 24 consecutive months of expansion; employment improved, though new orders and business activity softened.
Existing home sales fell 2.4% in June to an annualized rate of 4.09 million, as elevated prices and mortgage rates continued to pressure affordability.
The Fed held interest rates steady at its June meeting, with unanimous support, though a few members had initially considered a hike.
Looking ahead, the committee remains divided: one group anticipates rates holding flat or declining, while another expects further increases may be necessary before year-end.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	0.42%	0.50%	1.01%	1.01%	10.66%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	0.29%	-0.79%	0.61%	0.61%	9.52%
NASDAQ	0.29%	0.61%	0.26%	0.26%	13.08%
NASDAQ 100	0.33%	0.43%	-1.49%	-1.49%	18.12%
Russell 1000	0.36%	1.07%	0.88%	0.88%	11.12%
Russell 2000	-0.42%	-0.53%	-1.48%	-1.48%	20.74%
Russell 3000	0.27%	1.01%	0.74%	0.74%	11.52%
ACWI	0.42%	0.98%	0.45%	0.45%	12.17%

Global Client Survey

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending July 10, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending July 3, 2026

Jason Foster — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 18:12:21 +0000

Small Caps Take the Lead in a Historic Reversal

Each year, we track the first-half performance spread between U.S. small-cap and large-cap stocks, a comparison that has spanned market cycles since 2005. Over that period, small caps have lagged their large-cap counterparts in 14 of the past 21 first halves, with particularly steep underperformance in 2020 (-10.0%) and again in 2024 (-13.5%). This year broke sharply from that pattern: through the first half of 2026, small caps outperformed large caps by 12.3%, one of the most decisive reversals in the dataset’s history.

A shift of this magnitude, following years of small-cap underperformance, may point to a broader change in market leadership. That said, a single strong half does not confirm a durable trend, and history has shown that leadership rotations can be short-lived. For investors, the takeaway is less about predicting the next rotation and more about being positioned for it: those maintaining diversified exposure across market capitalizations are better equipped to benefit from shifts like this one, without needing to time them precisely.

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What Issues Should I Consider When Reviewing Cash Flow?

Sound cash flow planning is the foundation on which every effective financial plan is built. Most clients understand, at least in principle, the importance of tracking and managing their spending. Yet even well-intentioned individuals often struggle to take the basic steps required to turn that understanding into practice. A clear view of where money comes from and where it goes creates the discipline and accountability that support every other planning decision that follows.

A thoughtful review of cash flow considers several core areas: income sources, essential versus discretionary spending, outstanding debt and tax obligations, funding for near- and long-term goals, and the ongoing monitoring needed to keep a plan on track. Addressing these areas with intention, rather than assumption, gives clients a stronger foundation for the decisions ahead and can have a meaningful, lasting impact on their long-term financial well-being.

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Equities

U.S. large-cap stocks advanced 1.8% during the holiday-shortened week, as a softer June employment report eased concerns over near-term Fed rate hikes
Growth outpaced value, and larger companies outperformed their small- and mid-cap peers
Communication services (+5.0%) and financials (+3.7%) led sector performance, while real estate, utilities, and energy declined
Developed international markets rose 2.8%, outperforming U.S. large caps, while emerging markets gained 1.0%
Oil settled near $69 per barrel as U.S.-Iran peace efforts continued, even as Strait of Hormuz shipping activity remained below prewar levels

Bonds

Bonds declined as Treasury yields rose over the week, despite a brief pullback following the weaker employment report
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.49%, while the 2-year yield increased seven basis points to 4.14%, steepening the 2–10 year curve to 0.35%
Longer-duration bonds saw the sharpest losses, with long-term government bonds down 1.6% and long-term investment-grade corporates down 1.1%
High-yield bonds bucked the trend, advancing across the maturity spectrum, including a 1.2% gain among longer-duration issues, as improving risk sentiment and tighter credit spreads offset rising Treasury yields

Macroeconomic Data

June nonfarm payrolls rose by just 57,000 while the unemployment rate declined to 4.2%, pointing to a labor market that is cooling but still resilient
April and May payroll gains were revised down by a combined 74,000; average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and 3.5% year over year
JOLTS data showed job openings holding steady at 7.6 million in May, with hires unchanged at 5.2 million
Initial unemployment claims edged down to 215,000
The ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 from 54.0, marking a sixth consecutive month of expansion, with new orders holding strong and input-price pressures moderating
Consumer confidence ticked up to 91.2 in June, while May construction spending rose 0.1% but remained 1.5% below year-earlier levels

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return ( MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return ( YTD)
S&P 500	0.00%	0.58%	-0.21%	-0.21%	9.32%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	1.14%	1.37%	1.11%	1.11%	10.06%
NASDAQ	-0.80%	0.05%	-1.45%	-1.45%	11.15%
NASDAQ 100	-1.61%	-1.50%	-3.13%	-3.13%	16.16%
Russell 1000	-0.03%	1.83%	-0.18%	-0.18%	9.94%
Russell 2000	-0.58%	-0.44%	-0.96%	-0.96%	21.39%
Russell 3000	-0.08%	1.70%	-0.27%	-0.27%	10.40%
ACWI	0.02%	0.94%	-0.52%	-0.52%	11.08%

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending July 3, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending June 26, 2026

Jason Foster — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 18:41:02 +0000

The Big Picture: Short-Term Noise, Long-Term Optimism

Over the next couple of weeks, the market is expected to be driven more by technical mechanics than by economic news or corporate fundamentals. Think of it like traffic getting rerouted — the destination hasn’t changed, just the short-term path.

Why the Next Two Weeks May Feel Bumpy

Three big “housekeeping” events are happening simultaneously:

A Historic Options Expiration — The market is absorbing what Citadel describes as the largest options expiration on record, valued at approximately $8.3 trillion. Options are essentially contracts that expire on a set date — when a massive number expire at once, it can cause unusual short-term price swings as traders adjust their positions.
Quarter-End & Half-Year Rebalancing — Pension funds and other large institutional investors are repositioning their portfolios at quarter-end and half-year, which adds additional buying and selling pressure. This is routine — like a big spring cleaning of investment portfolios — but the sheer size of it matters right now.
Positioning Reset — Many large investors are essentially “resetting” their bets heading into the second half of the year. Any short-term market weakness tied to these events is largely mechanical, not a sign of economic trouble.

The Good News: July and Beyond Look Strong

Once this technical noise passes, the outlook becomes quite positive:

Everyday investors are all-in. Retail demand is at record highs, and households are sitting on record cash balances, ready to deploy on any market dip — a “buy the dip” behavior Citadel observes on most down trading days.
ETF inflows are surging. ETFs have attracted over $1 trillion in inflows year-to-date, running 45% ahead of the record set in 2025. This means money keeps flowing steadily into the market through index funds.
Companies are buying back their own stock — aggressively. Corporate buyback authorizations have surpassed $925 billion year-to-date through mid-2026. Technology and financial companies alone account for roughly 57% of all announced buybacks, reinforcing demand in the same sectors already benefiting from strong investor interest. When companies buy back their own shares, it tends to support stock prices.
July is historically one of the best months of the year. Seasonal patterns show that fresh capital tends to get deployed in July as investors start the second half of the year with renewed energy.

The Bottom Line

Citadel believes the path of least resistance for markets is higher as we transition into the second half of the year. In other words: expect some short-term choppiness tied to calendar mechanics, but the underlying forces — strong investor demand, corporate buying, and seasonal tailwinds — all point in a positive direction.

SOURCE: Citadel Securities

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Where Should I Withdraw My Next Dollar From For Retirement Expenses?

Making tax-efficient retirement withdrawals can significantly impact a client’s long-term financial success. Whether the need is for income, healthcare, education, or charitable giving, each withdrawal decision comes with implications that can affect portfolio longevity and taxation.

This flowchart helps you walk through the decision of where to make their next retirement withdrawal. It covers:

Common retirement expenses such as income needs, medical costs, education, and charitable giving
Tax treatment of accounts like IRAs, Roth IRAs, HSAs, and 529s
How to avoid penalties and be cognizant of AGI thresholds and tax bracket shifts
Strategic use of QCDs and capital gains harvesting
How to minimize taxes while meeting short- and long-term goals

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Equities

U.S. large-cap stocks declined last week, pressured by sharp losses in technology and communication services sectors
Mid- and small-cap stocks bucked the trend, posting modest gains for the week
Value continued to outperform growth across all market cap segments, extending a trend that has defined much of the year
Technology sold off despite a blockbuster quarterly report from Micron, which posted record revenue and profit driven by surging AI-related memory chip demand
Health care was the top-performing sector, gaining nearly 8%, as investors rotated out of technology and into more defensive areas of the market
U.S.-Iran tensions continued to ease, with the ceasefire holding and tanker traffic returning to the Strait of Hormuz — helping oil prices extend their retreat from spring highs
Developed international markets modestly outperformed U.S. large caps; emerging markets underperformed

Bonds

Bonds gained broadly last week as Treasury yields declined across the curve
Government bonds led the rally, with longer-duration issues outperforming shorter-term maturities
The 10-year Treasury yield closed the week at 4.38%; the 2-year yield finished at 4.07%
The larger decline in the 2-year yield modestly steepened the 2-10 year slope to 0.31%
Investment-grade corporate bonds advanced but trailed government debt, particularly on the long end
High-yield bonds lagged across the curve
Credit spreads widened only marginally — a brief pause following steady tightening for most of the quarter
Investment-grade corporates ended the week yielding 5.14%; high-yield bonds closed at 7.49%

Macroeconomic Data

Core PCE — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure — rose 0.3% for the month and 3.4% year-over-year, the highest annual reading since October 2023
Headline PCE rose 4.1% year-over-year, the highest level since April 2023
Personal income increased 0.7% for the month, boosted in part by one-time farm proprietors’ income tied to American Relief Act and USDA disaster relief payments
Consumer spending also rose 0.7%; the personal saving rate held steady at 3.0%
First-quarter GDP was revised upward to 2.1% from an initial estimate of 1.6%, primarily reflecting a downward revision to imports
The S&P Global flash Manufacturing PMI climbed to 55.7 in June, its strongest reading since May 2022, though manufacturing employment fell at its sharpest pace since the pandemic
The final June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading came in at 49.5 — up from May’s record low but still near historic lows; long-run inflation expectations eased slightly to 3.3%

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return ( 1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	0.94%	-0.66%	-2.07%	13.71%	8.44%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	0.70%	1.02%	2.36%	12.72%	8.69%
NASDAQ	1.47%	-1.90%	-4.83%	18.89%	10.45%
NASDAQ 100	1.39%	-2.71%	-2.67%	24.36%	16.92%
Russell 1000	1.32%	-0.72%	-1.60%	13.95%	9.06%
Russell 2000	-0.62%	0.81%	2.84%	20.44%	21.56%
Russell 3000	1.17%	-0.65%	-1.34%	14.14%	9.58%
ACWI	0.65%	-1.56%	-1.42%	12.95%	10.46%

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending June 26, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending June 19, 2026

Jason Foster — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 13:03:48 +0000

The Retirement Math Most People Get Wrong

There is a concept in longevity planning called conditional life expectancy, and it changes the retirement conversation entirely. Unlike the life expectancy figures most people reference — those assigned at birth — conditional life expectancy tells you how long you are statistically expected to live based on the age you have already reached. The implication is counterintuitive but important: the older you get, the longer you are likely to live.

The data makes this concrete. A 50-year-old man today can expect to live to approximately 80; a woman of the same age, to 83. But reaching 80 is not the finish line — it is a recalibration point. A man who reaches 80 now carries a life expectancy of 89. If he reaches 90, that number climbs to 94. Women live longer than men at every age along this curve, though the gap narrows — from roughly three years at age 50 to approximately one year by age 90. In other words, making it to 80 does not mean a person is near the end of their statistical runway. It means the odds of reaching their 90s just increased considerably.

The planning implication is direct. A 30-year retirement — from 65 to 95 — was once an outlier. It is now a realistic planning horizon for a meaningful portion of the population. The harder problem, then, is not running out of time. It is the risk of outliving financial resources. That requires income strategies built to hold up well into a client’s 90s, a spending pace calibrated to go the distance, and coverage solutions designed around a longer life than most people instinctively plan for. Longevity is no longer a tail risk. For many clients, it is the baseline.

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Foundation in Digital Assets, Part 5: How Investors Gain Exposure

In the first four parts of this series, we explored the technology behind digital assets, the distinction between digital currency and cryptocurrency, the regulatory framework stablecoins now operate within, and how decentralized finance is reshaping traditional lending and borrowing. In this final installment, we turn to a practical question: if a client wants exposure to digital assets, how do they actually get it?

There are three primary pathways, each carrying a distinct set of trade-offs.

Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs). The most significant development in this space has been the arrival of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. market. Approved by the SEC in January 2024 for Bitcoin and July 2024 for Ethereum, these products eliminated the need for direct cryptocurrency custody while providing regulated exposure to digital assets. The ETP market has since expanded to include products tracking XRP, Solana, and multi-asset crypto indices. Major wealth management platforms — including Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Vanguard — have opened access to Bitcoin ETFs for their clients, a shift that marks a meaningful transition from early-adopter territory toward mainstream distribution. ETPs offer accessibility and familiarity; they trade on regulated exchanges and sit inside existing brokerage accounts. Their limitation is that they track the price of an underlying asset — investors do not hold the asset itself. XT.comDL News

Direct Ownership. Investors may also purchase digital assets directly through regulated exchanges and hold them in a digital wallet. This approach provides full ownership of the asset but introduces a layer of responsibility that traditional investing does not: custody. Unlike a brokerage account, where an established institution holds assets on your behalf, direct ownership requires a deliberate decision about how and where to store private keys. Losses from lost credentials or exchange failures are generally not recoverable.

Custody Considerations. Whether an investor chooses an ETP or direct ownership, custody deserves careful attention. Self-custody — storing assets in a personal hardware wallet — provides maximum control but also maximum responsibility. Institutional custody through regulated providers offers infrastructure and insurance, but introduces counterparty exposure. Neither approach is inherently superior; the right choice depends on the investor’s technical comfort, risk tolerance, and overall portfolio context.

Digital asset exposure has become more accessible than at any prior point in the asset class’s history. That accessibility does not change the underlying risk profile. Volatility remains elevated relative to most traditional asset classes, and the appropriate role — if any — for digital assets in a given client’s portfolio is a conversation best held within the context of their broader financial plan.

This concludes the Foundation in Digital Assets series. We hope this five-part framework has provided a clearer vocabulary for evaluating digital assets with discipline and perspective.

Source: Educational framework adapted from materials published by the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals (DACFP), an independent educational organization recognized by the CFP Board of Standards, CFA Institute, and listed in FINRA’s database of professional designations.

Equities

Equity markets advanced on easing Middle East tensions and falling oil prices, with gains broad enough to overcome a hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve
Small-cap stocks led the way, outpacing large- and mid-caps; growth outperformed value across the board, with the widest gap in small-caps
Seven of eleven S&P 500 sectors finished higher, led by Information Technology and Industrials
Utilities was a notable exception among defensives, posting solid gains; Consumer Staples and Health Care were the week’s laggards
Energy was the worst-performing sector as oil prices fell on optimism surrounding Iran peace talks
International equities outperformed domestic markets; emerging markets surged more than 7%, buoyed by the oil price pullback

Bonds

Bond markets were mixed — long-duration issues rallied while short and intermediate maturities slipped into negative territory
Long government bonds led fixed income performance; high-yield outperformed Treasuries and investment-grade corporates at the short and intermediate segments
The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.19%, driven by a sharp Wednesday move as the FOMC’s hawkish tone repriced rate-hike expectations; the 10-year held near flat at 4.46%, narrowing the 2-10 spread to just 0.27%
The U.S. Aggregate Index ended the week yielding 4.74%; the U.S. Corporate Index closed at 5.20%

Macroeconomic Data

The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% in a unanimous vote — widely expected — but the updated Summary of Economic Projections delivered a hawkish surprise, with the median dot now pointing to a rate hike by year-end, reversing March’s projection for a cut
In his first press conference as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh declined to submit his own dot or offer forward guidance, and announced five internal task forces to review Fed communications, balance sheet policy, data sources, productivity and jobs, and the inflation framework — with most work targeted for completion by year-end
Retail sales rose 0.9% in May, beating expectations; even stripping out the boost from higher gasoline prices, the control group topped forecasts
Industrial production edged up just 0.1%, below expectations, with manufacturing output flat and capacity utilization holding modestly below its long-term average

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	-0.37%	-0.51%	-1.42%	14.46%	9.16%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	0.29%	-0.55%	1.33%	11.59%	7.59%
NASDAQ	-1.32%	-0.80%	-2.99%	21.19%	12.58%
NASDAQ 100	-0.19%	1.26%	0.05%	27.83%	20.19%
Russell 1000	-0.36%	-1.16%	-1.24%	14.37%	9.46%
Russell 2000	0.88%	1.20%	2.91%	20.52%	21.64%
Russell 3000	-0.27%	-0.95%	-0.96%	14.58%	10.01%
ACWI	-0.10%	-0.28%	0.05%	14.63%	12.10%

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending June 19, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending June 12, 2026

Jason Foster — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 21:00:36 +0000

Tech Today vs. The Dotcom Bubble

This is worth repeating!

A chart circulating in market commentary circles has drawn renewed attention to a familiar question: Is the current technology sector rally following the same path as the Dotcom boom of the late 1990s? The comparison overlays the technology sector’s return trajectory from October 1998 through October 2001 against the current period beginning in June 2024 — a side-by-side view designed to test whether history is repeating itself.

The short answer, based on the data, is that it is not. When the two periods are examined together, the return patterns diverge in meaningful ways. Rather than tracking a similar trajectory, each timeframe reflects its own distinct set of market conditions, economic dynamics, and investor behavior. The visual alignment of starting points does not translate into alignment of outcomes.

This distinction matters for investors. Historical comparisons can offer useful context — they remind us that elevated valuations and sector enthusiasm are not new phenomena — but they carry an important limitation: past market episodes are not predictive of future results. The purpose of this comparison is not to forecast a repeat of the Dotcom correction, nor to suggest that current conditions are immune from volatility. It is simply to provide context. The current return path has not mirrored the movements observed during the Dotcom period, and drawing direct parallels between the two would require ignoring the very different fundamental, monetary, and structural backdrops at play today.

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Foundation in Digital Assets | Part 4: What Is Decentralized Finance (DeFi)?

For most of modern history, accessing financial services has required a middleman — a bank to hold your deposits, a broker to execute your trades, a lender to approve your loan. Decentralized Finance, commonly referred to as DeFi, is a rapidly growing segment of the digital asset ecosystem built on a simple premise: what if those services could run on software instead?

DeFi refers to a collection of financial applications built on blockchain networks — most commonly Ethereum — that allow users to lend, borrow, trade, and earn yield without relying on a traditional financial institution. These applications operate through self-executing contracts called smart contracts: coded agreements that automatically carry out the terms of a transaction when predetermined conditions are met, with no bank, broker, or clearinghouse required.

The appeal of this model is its accessibility. DeFi protocols are open to anyone with an internet connection and a digital wallet, operating around the clock without the business hours, account minimums, or geographic restrictions of conventional finance. Transactions settle in minutes rather than days.

The risks, however, are equally distinctive. DeFi operates largely outside the regulatory perimeter — there is no FDIC insurance, no investor protection fund, and no compliance framework governing most protocols today. Smart contract code, while transparent, can contain vulnerabilities that bad actors exploit. And the assets involved remain highly volatile.

DeFi does not represent a replacement for the regulated financial system. What it does represent is a shift in how financial infrastructure can be designed — one that institutions, regulators, and long-term investors are watching closely.

Next in the series — Part 5: How Investors Gain Exposure. We examine the practical ways investors access digital assets today — from exchange-traded products and direct ownership to custody considerations and portfolio sizing.

Source: Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals (DACFP), an independent educational organization recognized by the CFP Board of Standards, CFA Institute, and listed in FINRA’s database of professional designations.

Equities

Stocks rebounded last week despite inflation data and geopolitical uncertainty, with sentiment improving as Middle East tensions eased and U.S.-Iran negotiations progressed
Small-cap stocks led the advance; mid-caps also posted strong weekly gains
Value outperformed growth across all market capitalizations, extending its year-to-date leadership as investor interest broadened beyond mega-cap technology
Sector rotation continued, with Materials, Consumer Staples, Financials, Real Estate, and Industrials leading; Energy and Communication Services lagged
International developed markets finished higher, outperforming emerging markets, which were essentially flat on the week

Bonds

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained 0.52% for the week as Treasury prices stabilized
The 2-year Treasury yield closed at 4.09%; the 10-year finished at 4.48%, leaving the 2-10 spread at 0.39%
Markets largely looked past inflation data, focusing on easing geopolitical risk and the upcoming Fed meeting, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged
Investment-grade corporate yields ended the week at 5.19%; high-yield at 7.40%, with both posting positive weekly returns reflecting continued credit market resilience

Macroeconomic Data

May CPI rose 0.5% for the month and 4.2% year-over-year — the fastest annual pace in roughly three years — though core CPI remained more contained at 0.2% monthly and 2.9% annually
Producer prices surprised to the upside, with PPI climbing 1.1% in May
Initial jobless claims edged up to 229,000, signaling modest labor market moderation while remaining at historically healthy levels
The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 48.9 from a record low of 44.8 in May, supported by lower gasoline prices and easing inflation expectations

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	1.73%	2.08%	-0.26%	15.80%	10.44%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	1.26%	2.09%	1.60%	11.88%	7.87%
NASDAQ	2.68%	2.52%	-1.44%	23.13%	14.38%
NASDAQ 100	2.77%	3.54%	0.41%	28.29%	20.62%
Russell 1000	1.53%	2.19%	-0.26%	15.50%	10.54%
Russell 2000	0.77%	4.81%	1.64%	19.03%	20.13%
Russell 3000	1.49%	2.29%	-0.13%	15.54%	10.93%
ACWI	1.07%	2.43%	-0.25%	14.29%	11.77%

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending June 12, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Order from Chaos: What a Nail Board Can Teach Diligent Investors About Markets

Jason Foster — Wed, 10 Jun 2026 20:29:00 +0000

There is a device, deceptively simple in its construction, that has fascinated mathematicians and scientists for over a century. The Galton board — named after the Victorian polymath Sir Francis Galton — is little more than a triangular array of pegs mounted above a row of collection bins. Steel bearings are dropped from the top one by one, each striking the first peg and deflecting left or right in what appears to be a perfectly random choice. The bearing falls to the next row, bounces again, and again, all the way to the bottom.

Watch a thousand bearings fall and something remarkable appears. No single bearing follows a predictable path. Yet the collection of all of them — those thousands of individual random journeys — assembles itself into a smooth, symmetrical bell curve. The centre bins are always full. The edge bins are always nearly empty. Chaos, repeated at sufficient scale, produces order.

This is not a trick. It is mathematics, and it has meaningful implications for anyone committed to building wealth with intention and consistency.

Why the middle wins

The logic of the Galton board is combinatorial. A bearing that ends up in the far-left bin must have deflected left at virtually every single peg it encountered. A bearing in the far-right bin must have gone consistently right. Both outcomes are possible — but both require a long, unbroken streak of the same result. The middle, by contrast, is reachable by an enormous variety of paths: left-right-left-right, right-left-right-left, and countless other combinations all converge there. The centre bins fill not because they are “correct” but because there are simply more routes leading to them.

The probability of extreme outcomes is real. It is also, by the structure of the board itself, geometrically rare.

Louis Bachelier and the random walk of prices

In 1900, a young French mathematician named Louis Bachelier submitted a doctoral thesis that his examiners found elegant but commercially peculiar. Its title was Théorie de la Spéculation, and its central argument was startling for its time: the future price of a financial asset is not knowable. It is governed by a distribution. Bachelier proposed that price movements follow a “random walk” — each step independent of the last, shaped by the continuous arrival of new information that no participant can fully anticipate. He derived the same mathematical structure that underlies the Galton board: the probability of a price being at any given level after some interval follows a normal, bell-shaped distribution centred on the present price. His work predated Einstein’s paper on Brownian motion by five years and laid the foundations for everything that would later become modern financial theory.

The insight was not that markets are irrational. It was that they are so efficient at absorbing information that the residual — the part that actually moves prices — behaves like pure noise. In Bachelier’s model, the expected future price of a stock is simply its present price. All the skill, all the analysis, all the forecasting, combines to define the centre of the distribution. What actually happens is the bearing finding its own path through the pegs.

What this means for the diligent investor

At Cestia, we believe that wealth is a verb, not a noun. It is built ring by ring — each one shaped by adversity, good fortune, conquered challenges, and the decisions made with clear eyes and a long horizon. The Galton board offers a useful lens for understanding why consistency and structure matter more than trying to predict where any single bearing will land.

A few implications follow from this directly.

First, extreme outcomes — the far bins on the board — do happen. They are genuinely rare, but rare is not the same as impossible. Markets crash. They also surge well beyond what fundamentals would justify. An investor who treats the tails of the distribution as purely theoretical is making the same error as an engineer who designs a bridge only for average weather. A panoramic understanding of markets requires acknowledging that the full width of the board is always in play.

Second, because there are so many paths to middling outcomes and so few to extreme ones, the overwhelming majority of short-term price movements will be modest. This is why volatility that feels dramatic in the moment tends to mean-revert over time. Individual bearings are erratic. The pile beneath the board is smooth. Quick gains can be exhilarating — but our clients know that building true wealth requires a consistent, long-term strategy, not a wager on which bin the next bearing will find.

Third, and perhaps most important, adding more independent bearings — more diversified positions — does not change the shape of the distribution. It sharpens it. A portfolio of uncorrelated assets concentrates outcomes more tightly around the centre. The law of large numbers, Galton’s own observation, is among the oldest and most reliable tools available to any investor building rings of wealth with a meticulous focus on the granular details of their financial life.

The paradox of the visible pattern

There is a quiet paradox at the heart of the Galton board. The pattern — the bell curve — is perfectly predictable. The path of any individual bearing is not. Markets offer the same paradox to those who pursue their long-term goals with mindful sensibility. In aggregate, over time, returns cluster around economic fundamentals. In the short run, any individual stock, sector, or index can find itself anywhere in the distribution.

Bachelier understood this over a century ago. The market, he argued, yields no systematic profit to either buyer or seller — not because it is passive or irrational, but because every piece of information that could predict the next move is already embedded in the current price. The peg at the top of the board is always the same. It is everything that happens after the bearing leaves your hand that cannot be controlled.

The Galton board asks investors to make peace with that reality — not with passivity, but with the kind of calm confidence that comes from a well-engineered financial strategy. You choose which board to play on, how many bearings to drop, and how long to wait for the pile to take its shape. Throughout the changes, challenges, and goals that define your financial journey, the distribution remains your most dependable guide.

That is, more or less, what markets have always rewarded.

Sources

On Louis Bachelier and the random walk of prices

Bachelier, L. (1900). Théorie de la Spéculation. Annales Scientifiques de l’École Normale Supérieure, 17, 21–88. Reprinted in: Cootner, P. H. (ed.) (1964). The Random Character of Stock Market Prices. MIT Press.

Davis, M. & Etheridge, A. (2006). Louis Bachelier’s Theory of Speculation: The Origins of Modern Finance. Princeton University Press.

Courtault, J-M. et al. (2000). “Louis Bachelier: On the Centenary of Théorie de la Spéculation.” Mathematical Finance, 10(3), 341–353.

On the Galton board

Galton, F. (1889). Natural Inheritance. Macmillan. pp. 63–70. Facsimile available at galton.org.

Schneider, I. (2001). “The Quincunx: History and Mathematics.” Statistical Papers, 42, 143–169.

On the efficient market hypothesis

Fama, E. F. (1965). “Random Walks in Stock Market Prices.” Financial Analysts Journal, 21, 55–59.

Fama, E. F. (1970). “Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work.” Journal of Finance, 25, 383–417.

Disclosures

Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.
Citations to Internal Revenue Code sections, Treasury regulations, IRS notices and revenue procedures, and Tax Court decisions reflect guidance and case law in effect as of the date of publication and are subject to change.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
This material was prepared with the assistance of AI. All content has been reviewed, edited, and approved by Cestia Wealth Management prior to use.

The post Order from Chaos: What a Nail Board Can Teach Diligent Investors About Markets appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.

Week Ending June 5, 2026

Jason Foster — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 18:30:03 +0000

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Foundation in Digital Assets | Part 3 of 5

Stablecoins and the GENIUS Act: Bringing Order to the Middle Ground

In Part 2, we drew a clear line between digital currency and cryptocurrency — centralized versus decentralized, institution-controlled versus protocol-governed. Stablecoins occupy the interesting middle ground between those two worlds, which is precisely what makes them interesting to understand.

What Is a Stablecoin?

A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency engineered to hold a steady value. Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum — whose prices can move sharply in a matter of hours — a stablecoin is designed to maintain a consistent price, typically pegged 1:1 to a fiat currency such as the U.S. dollar.

The stability is achieved through reserves. The most common structure is straightforward: for every stablecoin in circulation, the issuer holds one dollar (or its equivalent in short-term U.S. Treasury securities) in reserve. When a holder redeems their stablecoin, the issuer returns the corresponding dollar. Think of it as a digital dollar token that moves on blockchain rails — settling in seconds, crossing borders without a correspondent bank, and operating around the clock.

The two most widely used stablecoins today are USDT (Tether), the largest by market capitalization, and USDC (USD Coin), issued by Circle and known for its regular independent reserve audits. Together, fiat-backed stablecoins represent the vast majority of a market now valued at approximately $320 billion.

Why Stablecoins Matter

Stablecoins solve one of the most practical limitations of cryptocurrency: volatility. They allow participants to move value quickly and inexpensively across the digital asset ecosystem without converting back to traditional currency at every step. For this reason, they have become the primary medium of exchange within decentralized finance — a topic we will address in Part 4.

They also serve a growing role in payments, cross-border transfers, and, increasingly, mainstream financial services. Visa, PayPal, and several major banks have begun integrating stablecoin infrastructure into their settlement systems.

The GENIUS Act: A Regulatory Milestone

For years, stablecoins operated in a regulatory gray area — widely used, but without a clear federal framework governing how they should be backed, audited, or supervised. That changed on July 18, 2025, when President Trump signed the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins) into law.

The GENIUS Act is the first federal law to create a comprehensive regulatory framework for payment stablecoins — digital tokens pegged to monetary value and intended for payments. Passed with strong bipartisan support (308–122 in the House, 68–30 in the Senate), the law establishes who may legally issue a stablecoin in the United States, how reserves must be held and disclosed, and which federal or state regulator is responsible for oversight. It replaces a patchwork of state and federal guidance with enforceable standards for reserve assets, redemption rights, disclosures, and custody — and clarifies that compliant stablecoins are neither securities nor commodities.

Implementing regulations are being finalized by the OCC, Federal Reserve, FDIC, and NCUA, with the Act set to take effect no later than January 18, 2027.

What This Means for Clients

The GENIUS Act does not make stablecoins an investment recommendation. What it does is bring a major segment of the digital asset market into a regulated framework — one with reserve requirements, redemption protections, and federal supervision that did not previously exist. For clients seeking to understand how the digital asset landscape is evolving, this is a meaningful development worth tracking.

Next in the series — Part 4: Decentralized Finance (DeFi). We examine how blockchain-based financial services are being built outside the traditional banking system — and what that means for the future of lending, borrowing, and yield.

EQUITIES

Broad equity markets pulled back from recent highs, as a pronounced decline in technology shares weighed on overall performance.
Value stocks outperformed growth stocks across market capitalizations, extending year-to-date leads for large-cap and mid-cap value.
Mid-cap equities demonstrated the greatest resilience during the week’s downturn; small-caps bore the steepest losses, with the Russell 2000 declining approximately 3%.
Seven of eleven S&P 500 sectors closed higher despite the risk-off environment — Energy led all sectors, supported by rising crude oil prices.
Defensive and cyclical sectors including Health Care, Real Estate, and Financials each posted solid advances for the week.
Information Technology was the weakest sector, as momentum behind artificial intelligence names paused meaningfully.
International equities also declined but outperformed domestic markets on a relative basis.

BONDS

Fixed income markets sold off as yields rose broadly across the Treasury curve, adding to what has already been a challenging year for bonds.
The 2-year Treasury yield climbed 19 basis points to 4.17%, up from 3.98% at the close of May; the 10-year Treasury yield rose 10 basis points to 4.55%.
The 2s/10s slope flattened from 0.47% to 0.38%, reflecting the steeper move at the front end of the curve.
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index fell 0.54% for the week, pushing its year-to-date return into negative territory at -0.17%.
Investment-grade corporate yields closed the week at 5.26%, while high-yield corporate yields ended at 7.43%.

MACROECONOMIC DATA

U.S. economic data continued to reflect an economy with notable underlying resilience, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will sustain a restrictive policy stance for an extended period.
The May nonfarm payrolls report was the week’s headline release — 172,000 jobs were added, meaningfully exceeding consensus estimates, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3%.
Prior months’ job gains were revised upward, suggesting the labor market remains more durable than many economists had projected.
Wage growth moderated to 3.4% year-over-year, a development that may temper concerns around a wage-price inflation spiral.
April JOLTS job openings surged to 7.618 million — a substantial surprise relative to the consensus estimate of approximately 6.866 million — underscoring continued tightness in the labor market.
The U.S. services sector remained in expansion in May, though readings diverged across surveys: ISM’s Services PMI rose to 54.5, signaling solid activity, while S&P Global’s Services PMI registered a more modest 50.7, indicating slower demand growth.

(as of Monday’s Market Opening)

	Total Return (1D)	Total Return (1W)	Total Return (MTD)	Total Return (QTD)	Total Return (YTD)
S&P 500	0.81%	-2.06%	-1.80%	14.01%	8.73%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	0.30%	-0.12%	-0.03%	10.09%	6.15%
NASDAQ	1.39%	-3.76%	-3.35%	20.74%	12.16%
NASDAQ 100	1.94%	-3.26%	-2.68%	24.34%	16.91%
Russell 1000	0.80%	-1.62%	-1.62%	13.93%	9.04%
Russell 2000	1.49%	-1.58%	-1.58%	15.26%	16.33%
Russell 3000	0.84%	-1.54%	-1.54%	13.91%	9.36%
ACWI	0.81%	-1.83%	-1.83%	12.48%	10.00%

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Disclosures

Wealth Mechanics™ is a registered trademark of Cestia Wealth Management. Unauthorized use of the trademark, including but not limited to commercial use, reproduction, or imitation without explicit written permission from Cestia Wealth Management, is strictly prohibited.
Market commentary provided by NewEdge Advisors
Charts concerning market data are provided by Exhibit A.
Guides and other downloadable firm material respective to financial planning processes and data are provided and powered by fpPathfinder.
Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, LLC are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.
Cestia Wealth Management is not a legal tax professional. We offer tax gap analysis for clients who desire to have a comprehensive financial plan, which requires in-depth tax strategy and planning as a distinct part of the overall customized solution. Please consult your tax professional on all matters addressed in this report.
Information about annuities are not to be considered a recommendation. The information provided should not considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The post Week Ending June 5, 2026 appeared first on Cestia Wealth Management.